Let's get real

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 Let's get real

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• Unprecedented: This over-used word perfectly summarises the world's condition today, with 3 crore infected and 10 lakh dead. Even today there's no perfect solution to the pandemic, and India is sadly at the centre of the crisis (60 lakh cases, fast growth rate).
• Indian economy: While world economy will shrink by 5-10% in 2020, India's contraction will be more pronounced (10-15%). So India will be set back by 3 years, and the 2024 goal of $5 trillion is now off. So that is a very painful truth.
• More painful: The biggest truth now is that if we really want to get the economy back on track, there is only one way - kill this virus' spread in India once and for all. Failure to do so will mean many more quarters of collapsing growth.
• Were lockdowns good for us: In March, they looked good. Today, they look very bad given the results. And India has no social security and a huge informal sector, amplifying the pain.
• Sadly, no communication: The real communication now needs to be from all govts. to all citizens that they must be very careful about the virus. But that is not happening. But there is a 5-point solution that can work for India.
• FIRST POINT: Let all political leaders take it very seriously at central, state and local levels. Don't be silent, talk about it. Use the seven-day rolling averages for infections and deaths.
• SECOND POINT: Use best global experiences, which are from a mix of nations. Taiwan, Vietnam, S Korea and Sri Lanka have done very well. Of these, S Korea and Taiwan have double the density of India! Vietnam and Sri Lanka are at similar levels. Learn from all.
• THIRD POINT: Use only science and expertise, not the DMA (Disaster Management Act) which only harasses. Let scientists and doctors set policy direction, and not administrators. 
• FOURTH POINT: Suspend all politics on this, and come together to fight it. No one will be spared if any one is not spared.
• FIFTH POINT: Citizens must participate and remain disciplined, without which it's all over. Even a low fatality rate of 2% means several hundreds deaths each day. 
• Finally: Low mortality rate will come from early identification, close monitoring, and continuity of effort. There can be no life-as-usual in India until this problem is finished. And that means communication from the very top.

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