Is The Populist Tide Ebbing?

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Is The Populist Tide Ebbing?

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• What is populism? Populists tend to frame politics as a battle between the virtuous 'ordinary' masses and a nefarious or corrupt elite – and insist that the general will of the people must always triumph. The Guardian is adopting the classic definition of populism proposed by political scientist Cas Mudde. Populism, he says, is often combined with a "host" ideology, which can either be on the left or right. Populism is as old as democracy itself, but the last 10 years have proven particularly fertile: populist leaders now govern countries with a combined population of almost two billion people, while populist parties are gaining ground in more than a dozen other democracies, many of them in Europe.
• The Global Populism Database is the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable repository of populist discourse in the world. It was commissioned by the Guardian and built by Team Populism, a global network of scholars dedicated to the scientific study of the causes and consequences of populism. The database provides insight into the extent of populist rhetoric in the speeches of government leaders across the world over the past two decades. It is based upon populism “scores” given to 728 speeches by the presidents, prime ministers and chancellors of 40 countries.
• Trump's departure: After Trump's second impeachment, many are happy that finally, global populism is in retreat. However, Trump was not the cause but only a symptom of it, and populism may continue unabated in 2020s.
• Two billion: In 2020, roughly 200 crore of world's population was under populist regimes. That included 30 cr Americans! [as per Global Populism Database]

1. A common trick used to gain power was attacking immigrants, MNCs and 'fake media’
2. Just 20 years ago, only few populist governments existed (Italy, Argentina, Venezuela), with Silvio Berlusconi of Italy being the maverick right-of-centre PM
3. Then came the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-08 and it was the trigger for the rise of uncontrolled populism

• Some escaped it: Not all nations fell prey to the new trend, with Canada, Germany and France not having a single leader in post-war era that preyed on populist sentiments and rhetoric. But share of votes for such leaders is rising steadily.
• US populism wave not the only one: Over past three centuries, many instance arose in US itself. Andrew Jackson (president from 1829 to 1837) was called "King Mob" and many compare him with Trump. But the latest populist wave is deeper and wider.
• Global Populism Database: Today, compared to the 12 cr people in 2000, more than 200 crore are being ruled by "very populist", "populist", or "somewhat populist" leaders. India's Modi falls in this camp. Across the world, shades differ. European populists tend to be right-wing, while South American ones are socialists (Jair Bolsonaro an exception). So the question is, what next?
• Reduce or increase: So in the coming years, will populism grow, or diminish? Trump may as well have won 2020 had pandemic not struck!

1. The pandemic has struck a deeper recession worldwide now than after the GFC of 2007
2. It's the deepest since World War II
3. Highest percentage of economies are experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870s
4. Add to that the rising inequality in society, where affluent groups are enriching themselves rapidly (via stock market booms) while poor folks are losing jobs and incomes
5. The inter-generational impact on young people who are losing jobs in large numbers is deep. The long-term earning potential of nations is at risk. Political discontent will rise. So new populism will arise.

• Social media's role: This new force is shaping public opinion and behaviour in unimaginable ways. Populism may have been given a huge thrust (some disagree) through social media platforms. 
• Summary: Trump's end is a big setback for global populism, but it is not the peak nor the end of it. The pandemic has now seeded the discontent that can further create a new breed of populism.

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