Is India losing the coronavirus battle?

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 Is India losing the coronavirus battle?

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• Battle not being won: Is India losing the coronavirus battle? It cannot afford to lose, and has to win. An analysis of what went right and what went wrong is needed. A right strategy from here on is needed.
• Things done right: India declared a lockdown in March 2020, one of the first in the world. The opportunity to cut the flow of infection was huge. It gave India time to improve its medical facilities, so that once lockdown was lifted, hospitals would handle things better.
• Things Kerala did right: Kerala had a robust healthcare system already, and a strong primary healthcare. Decentralisation at local body level was done, and Kerala knew that the Chinese virus would arrive soon due to Malayali diaspora in China. It oriented the public on mask use, social distancing and hand washing. It tested as per a strategy.
• The sad part: As lockdowns ended and normal life commenced, infections have shot up (as expected). But the ability to actually flatten the curve has still not been acquired. The curve keeps rising every single day! We are reaching the top of global league of infections.
• States are in knee-jerk mode: States are doing their own thing, bringing new lockdowns here and there. That will bring enormous hardship on the poor folks - the wrong curve will be bent (GDP, and not the infection).
• Who did best: Some countries got a grip on the virus pretty fast - Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany, Norway, China. 

1. China's severe lockdowns led to success, but that is not an option for India. Germany made use of the lockdown much better.
2. South Korean model was best - it learnt from earlier epidemics of SARS, H1N1 and MERS 2015. It did three things - fast and free testing, tracing technology and isolation for severest cases. Drive-through testing ensured people didn't need to get out of cars even. Since sick were separted from population, citizens cooperated a lot. Even with no lockdown, good results achieved.

• What made lockdowns successful: Wherever they did well, it was due to citizen participation in a disciplined way, and system's efficiency. In India, it will now be the duty of the State govt. to do all this. 
• Sad state: Politicians have failed in emotionally connecting with people to ask them to wear masks and maintain distancing. The police are asked to do enforcement. Where are volunteers of political parties? India is headed for a dangerous future the way things are.
• The curve and the vaccine: For India, it seems that only a vaccine will save the day, not the people or the politics.

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