Interpreting the Sri Lankan mandate

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 Interpreting the Sri Lankan mandate

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• The landslide victory of populism: Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna’s (SLPP) resounding win in the parliamentary election has decimated the opposition United National Party (UNP). UNP’s 5/6th majority in 1977 is the only precedent of such a sweeping victory in the country’s history. 
• How the numbers stack up: SLPP has won 145 of the 225 seats, another new party Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) has secured 54 seats, key minority voice Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) has come in third with 10 seats, Muslim parties managed to hold 2, leaving UNP with just 1 seat. 
• Ethnic minorities dwindle: The leading minority party ITAK’s strength has diminished from 16 to 10 seats, other small Tamil parties have won 6 seats. Muslim representation follows a similar trend.
• Low turnout of UNP voters: Relatively low voter turnout of 71% in a characteristically participative electorate, but an even weaker participation by UNP voters was a tailwind for SLPP.
• Failure of the Yaha Paalanaya coalition: Ranil Wickremesinghe and Maithripala Sirisena’s Yaha Paalanya coalition failed to deliver on the promise of democratic revival, peace, and corruption-free governance which brought it to power in January 2015. Its rule was instead marked by corruption, lack of unity, and weak administrative and national security. The coalition also failed to sustain the gains of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, its significant achievement for reducing concentration of power. 
• Win signals change in realpolitik: A campaign built on the promise of stability, strong government, and politics of development presented a fresh alternative amidst a rule plagued by economic crisis and weak democracy. It especially struck a chord with the poor and middle class that felt alienated by UNP’s neo-liberal reforms. 
• Sinhalese Buddhist overtones: Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism, a majoritarian ideology strengthened SLPP’s appeal in Sinhalese society that regards Mahinda Rajapakse as the savior who led the military victory over LTTE a decade back.
• Gotabaya and hopes of new political model: President’s twin wins of effective management of the pandemic and war against drug mafia have instilled a sense of confidence in a new model of open participation by the military, more congruence between Prime Minister and President, and increased focus on law and order. 
• Constitutional changes: The thumping victory allows SLPP to alter the country’s political structure. It has signalled repealing the restrictions on presidential powers and giving administrative power to the military. 
• Challenges: Economic and social upheavals may water down the freedom of a clear mandate compelling SLPP to review its plans as the economic collapse caused by the pandemic looks all set to compound the existing challenges before the new government.

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