India's vanishing demographic dividend

Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!

  India's vanishing demographic dividend

---

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

---

• The story: India has been shown as a big future economic growth story after China, largely due to potential its young population has. The idea is that as the young Indian population enters the working age, it will lead to higher economic growth – a demographic dividend (DD). 
• When it started: The DD window began in 2018 when the working age population began to grow larger than its dependent population – children aged 14 years or below and people above 65 years of age. It is expected to last for 37 years until 2055. But will India manage to gain through this bulging working population? That's the big question. 
• Bare truth today: The ‘pandemic generation’ is joining the workforce in an economy that is failing to provide adequate employment opportunities to its current strength, and India’s chances of levering upon its demographic dividend are soon becoming obscure. There is little to no hope that things will be any different moving forward. Miracles don't happen in real world.

1. Since the end of the Second World War, global population has more than doubled and the per capita GDP of the world has risen by over five times. The rapid technological progress in the post-Malthusian world has made population an asset rather than a burden.
2. Many Asian economies — including Japan, South Korea, and China — were able to benefit from the rise in their working population. This has been possible in the modern world due to fall in fertility rates through contraceptive usage and increase in life expectancy through scientific advancements in modern medicine. And these Asian economies managed to engage their population in productive employment, which enabled sustained periods of high growth. So, the expectations from India have been immense to reap similar demographic dividends.
3. But only technology doesn'e help; there are two further prerequisites: ample availability of productive employment and the capability to make use of available technologies. India is lacking on both fronts.

• Stark numbers: Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, unemployment levels in India had hit a 45-year high. As of 2017-18, only half of the people in the working age were actually working. In 2004-05, the same proportion was 63.7 per cent. Moreover, the troubled scenario of education and skills is evident from the Pratham surveys that are released each year. In 2018, it showed that just half of the children in the 5th standard could read a text from the 2nd standard. The pandemic just worsened the situation. 
• Kids hit badly: The latest State of India’s Environment report released by the Centre for Science and Environment finds that an astounding 375 million children may suffer long-lasting impacts due to the pandemic including being underweight and stunted, which will lead to losses in education and economic productivity. Government programmes like mid-day meal schemes, which encouraged school enrolment have taken a hit during the pandemic. Even those students who managed to remain enrolled have face difficulties in accessing education due to the vast digital divides across income groups.
• Summary: The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has shocked India badly. Even now, it's now too late. India needs to start focusing hard on what matters most now - education, health and social equality. If right investments over this decade can be made, then by 2030, we surely will see a substantial payoff from the huge youth bulge of India. If not, then we will simply miss out on India's biggest blessing.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

Join UPSC Self Prep course | Online Course (PT Gurukul)  | Covid Special Course | Join PT courses

* Content sourced from free internet sources (publications, PIB site, international sites, etc.). Take your own subscriptions. Copyrights acknowledged.