India should deploy naval power to acquire leverage over China

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 India should deploy naval power to acquire leverage over China

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• Himalayas versus the Indian Ocean: India may not be able to deter the Chinese activities in Himalayan region till it decides to take strong action against Chinese interest in areas it is weaker. As of July, India wants China to withdraw to pre-April-2020 position, but perhaps China may not do that at all.
• Beijing's calculations: It may deduce that Indian leaderhsip may not want to escalate militarily, and hence it (China) can keep the LAC gains permanently. That thinking of China will change if India shows that in some vital regions, it is willing to exert force and change China's position. 
• Dangerous maritime situation: In the South China sea (SCS) region, the US has sent three full aircraft carrier groups. US has openly said that it will support China's opponents in maritime matters (earlier it was neutral). China has warned US but its ships are patrolling the entire region claiming freedom of navigation rights. This new US aggression is in response to recent Chinese maritime aggression against Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.
• ASEAN versus China: The problem with ASEAN's maritime member-states is they are too small and weak to take on China directly. So they welcome the US presence, as a counterweight. But they do not want to be dragged into a conflict that they don't want. They want a compromise, but perhaps China won't climb down from its maximalist position. So, other than Vietnam, no one will resist China in international courts (and perhaps militarily).
• What if they fight: If China clashes with Vietnam or the Philippines, US will enter the conflict. If US and China fight each other, rest will be forced to pick a side. India will be well-advised to exercise its options in South China Sea now.
• Indian position: India advocates peaceful solutions to problems in the SCS, in consonance with the UNCLOS (UN Convention on Law of the Sea). It is time to put muscle behind those words. Indian Navy must carry out operations now east of the Malacca Strait. The message would go straight to Beijing, in the least threatening manner. Keep moving in the region away from disputed waters.
• Stronger message: If the Indian Navy is sent to Japanese or Russian ports, while crossing Taiwan on the way, China would get a very strong message. The leverage India needs will be created (currently it is absent).
• The most aggressive: The ultimate would be to move into the South China Sea region and totally reject China's Nine-Dash-Line claims. But that means a close cooperation with US, Japan and Australia. So, it is time to include Australia in the Malabar exercise. 
• Naval angle missed: India is not using the naval power, and not supporting it strongly enough (fiscally), focusing instead only on the land border (LAC) with China. The necessary leverage will come from the sea, not on land.

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