In Himalayan staredown, the dilemmas for Delhi

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In Himalayan staredown, the dilemmas for Delhi

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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•  A new age of aggression: It is clear that the Chinese have started a new age of territorial aggression against India, looking at their LAC violation reports. Annually, 400 plus violations by PLA are reported, but the May-June 2020 story is unprecedented.
• Statement and action: Even as the Chinese govt. has said that "situation on China-India border is overall stable and controllable", the PLA hasn't really restored status quo ante at the LAC (they moved into 'Indian side'). It is clear that the Chinese are 'inside' Indian territory.
• Choices for Modi govt.: There are two choices - (i) accept territorial loss as a fait accompli, or (ii) force or negotiate a reversal to earlier situation (unless PLA goes back on its own).
• What it signals: The so-called "peaceful rise" of Beijing is over. Xi Jinping's China wants t make it clear that it is the dominant power in Asia. And it does to during the COVID-19 battle!
• Triggers: To trangress into Indian boundaries when the world is fighting COVID is perhaps due to global pressure on China on the same matter. 

1. What India said about Aksai Chin in 2019 must have made Jinping upset (even if India wasn't serious about getting it back from China)
2. Indian infrastructure building along the LAC has rattled the Chinese

• J&K and China: China has invested heavily in the CPEC projects that go through Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), and that too played a part.
• I am a superpower now: China now understands that India will not toe its line in South Asia at all, and it wants to send the message that it is already a superpower now. All nations will take note of what's going on. China wants to also tell the US that it can fight multiple battles on newer fronts, and won't be cowed down.
• The Doklam story: In 2017, India resisted China at Doklam in Bhutan, and what China is doing in 2020 in both Ladakh and Sikkim is its way of telling India that it will respond for sure.
• A direct fight: China won't pick up a direct, large-scale fight with India as it will harm its interests, but by inflicting minor bruises through small incursions that are cost-effective, the message is sent home. And if India accepts territorial loss, it has to retaliate and gain the territory back. Doing that is very tough against someone who is now conventionally far superior to India militarily. But this overlooking of losses will embolden Beijing.
• Limits of China's adventurism: The PLA is not strong everywhere along the LAC, and Indian Army has an upper hand. India holds an edge on the maritime front in some regions against the Chinese. And will China want to end or damage the $100 b trade with India?
• Summary: India has to push for a final border agreement with China. With each passing year, China's power differential is growing, and they won't cede much. China is a superpower next door, and India cannot wish that away.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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