Democracies, Demonstrate!

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 Democracies, Demonstrate!

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• US and India both: In two large democracies India and the US, the governments have decide to start curbing the Chinese firms' activities. Both chose different ways to do it, but it's clear both realise that it's the home front that has to be secured first.
• An ongoing debate: US has had this tense debate for long, but for India it's a fresh one unravelling now. This will also shape India-US relations.
• China's marginal presence: Despite the 1962 war, China never became a mainstream political issue at all. It was Pakistan, and India's relation (tough and non-subservient) with the US, that did. In fact to be practical and accommodating with China was considered a good idea.
• China got a free pass: That ensured China could do whatever it wanted - make deep inroads into Pakistan, arm it with nukes, control Myanmar, develop links with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, etc. And in parallel, it grew its trade and surpluses with India consistently.
• Attack: Shamefully, China went aggressive against India in 2020, amassing its military in Ladakh. For India, status quo is no longer a possibility, though remaining quiet worked well for many decades (but not now). The new reality is that accommodating China is totally meaningless.
• Cutting China to size: It's good to ban the Apps and cancel the orders, but the vacuum created needs to be filled smartly and quickly, else the 'anger' won't sustain. So US comes into picture now.
• The unique problem: India is doing badly on economic relationship with the US, but very good on the strategic and political relationship front. China is doing good (not bad) on economic front with the US, and very badly on the other two. China is keen to honour the Jan 2020 trade deal with the US. It bought record amounts of corn, from farmers who are perhaps Trump's vote base.
• Wait for the elections: China is being hit hard due to the 2020 Presidential elections in US, and will wait till results are out. A communist nation has that luxury of waiting and watching.
• Historical examples: With both Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush, USA went anti-China initially, and slowly became pro-China in many ways. Bill Clinton wanted to end China's MFN status, but ended up getting China an entry into the WTO itself!  [MFN - Most Favoured Nation]
• Defence budget and treasuries: China's sharp rise in defence budget in 2007 invited US rebuke (this isn't a 'peaceful rise') and the next year China was the biggest holder of US treasuries. 
• Not US-USSR at all: Since the Soviets never had such a relation with the US, the Cold War template doesn't apply today to China. China went for rapproachement with the US since Nixon's 1972 visit, and has gained.
• 2020 challenges: Today India faces a real threat from China across the border, while US is looking at the end of its numero uno global power status. It is now time for India and US both to change their China strategies completely. Time has arrived.

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