Covid-19 testing kept artifially low in election-bound states

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• The story: Covid-19 testing usually speeds up when local reports indicate a rising positivity rate. But Kerala and Assam dragged on till polls were over, while in West Bengal testing was still disastrously low in April 2021. 
• The 2021 polls: Assembly elections were in full swing in 2021 particularly in West Bengal, where the polls have been scheduled over a protracted period of one month (eight rounds, something protested by many, but adhered to by the Election Commission). As the campaign rages in WB, Covid-19 spread with a speed never imagined before in multiple states. 
• The facts: Data shows that three of the four major states delayed testing despite worsening indicators. Only Tamil Nadu quickened the pace after the first signs of deterioration. 

1. Kerala, a state that was one of the best performers in terms of tests carried out daily, saw worsening TPR. The Test positivity rate (TPR) is the number of tests returning a Covid-19 positive result per 100 tests. The TPR for Kerala began worsening in the middle of March, as the poll campaign gathered steam. A general rule is that if TPR rises gradually, more testing is needed to ascertain the extent of the spread. But Kerala did not raise testing despite a continually rising TPR. In fact, data shows that testing was ramped up only after polls ended on April 6. Low death rate could be one reason for limiting testing.
2. Assam's case is starker. Testing was very low at about 4 tests per 10,000 people till the elections (three phases) were going on. Once the elections ended, testing was ramped up strongly. Testing dips during polls in Assam, rises only after election ends despite having a rising death rate. While Assam’s TPR is quite low, its death rate is high. Death rate is measured as the delayed case fatality rate, which is the number of deaths today, as a share of cases 18 days ago. Assam’s case is curious in that the death rate was higher than positivity rate. The national level 18-day CFR has hovered over and below 1 per cent, and has currently worsened to 1.8 per cent (as the second wave approaches its peak). For Assam, the 18-day CFR has been in the range of 2-4 per cent for a long time.
3. West Bengal fared very poorly on testing. If the completion of poll phases prompted states to pay attention to testing, WB seems to be neglecting it. West Bengal ignores rising positivity rate, but testing still very poor despite having woken up. It conducted less than 4 tests per 10,000 people. The Pune Municipal Corporation (a city of 3.5 million people in Maharashtra) conducted more daily tests than the entire state of West Bengal, which houses a 100 million people. In West Bengal, TPR started rising from the lows in February itself. It was not until the Test Positivity Rate crossed 3 per cent that testing was slightly pushed up. It is rising, but still, the level is very low. If WB goes on a path similar to what Kerala and Assam did, it may not put thrust on testing till the polls are over.
4. Tamil Nadu was the only poll-bound state that raised testing while the campaign was on. It raised its testing level—and kept raising it gradually—at the first sign of a rise in test positivity. 

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