Covid-19 second wave and Indian youngsters

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  Covid-19 second wave and Indian youngsters

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• The story: The age profile of Covid-19 active cases in some cities (e.g.) Chennai showed that younger population or people less than 40 years account for the highest case loads. Of the 30,005 active cases as on May 6, 22 per cent were from 30-39 years age group against 15.24 per cent in 50-59 years group or 10.42 per cent in case of 60-69 years. The trend is similar elsewhere too.
• From 2020 to 2021: The latest data put out by various States, revealed a growing number of people in the younger age group with less than 40 years being more vulnerable to infection in the ongoing second wave compared to the older ones, who were the prime targets of the virus in the first wave.

1. Expers say the first two variants (Wuhan and D614G) of virus infected a proportion of Indians. People who were susceptible to easy infection were infected and all others were spared. That included younger people.
2. The second wave is caused by many new variants and those who are infected have higher virus load. When these infectious people have higher virus load, the non-infected, non-immune people have a higher risk of getting infected. So, the proportion of youngsters who remained unaffected but susceptible were caught more than the immune older people. 
3. A dashboard (by the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC)) showed 21.76 per cent of total confirmed cases in the country from the age group of 31-40 years, while 21.70 per cent are in 21-30 years set. On the contrary, only 8.74 per cent of confirmed cases are from the 61-70 years bracket, while the 71-80 years set accounts for 3.56 per cent.

• Anecdotal references: Some experts say that all this is purely anecdotal, and there was no major evidence to suggest a large-scale systematic shift. Since there were more patients overall therefore the overall number of young people also rose. And vaccination is protecting the elderly better. Some experts say it could be due to a combination of factors such as higher vaccine penetration among elders, high risk of virus exposure to younger ones who venture to meet livelihood challenges, and for the fact that a large number of vulnerable elders already being affected in the first wave itself.
• Summary: The virus is also looking to survive and propagate itself so it will learn to adapt and pressure of adaptation depend on what humans do. The vaccine roll out is at an insignificantly low proportion to attribute it as the reason for decline in infection among the older population. Barely around 2 per cent population was fully vaccinated, and that could not be the reason. 

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