Asian nations beat India in Covid control

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 Asian nations beat India in Covid control

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• Swift action but low effect: India was quick to stop flights from China and Europe and impose a complete lockdown but at 2.65 million, it has the third highest number of cases globally. In the last two weeks, India has added more cases than the top two countries US and Brazil.
• Neighbouring countries: Some weren’t as quick to act and still have lower incidence, although lower numbers could also be because of less testing.

1. Pakistan: It imposed province-wise lockdown followed by smart lockdowns where only hotspots were shut down. It had high incidence in June but daily cases have fallen from 6000 in June to 679 in August.
2. Afghanistan: Non-existent healthcare and a significant population employed at quarries in Iran—from where they were sent back in crowded buses when Iran became the worst hit after China—led experts to believe Afghanistan would be severely hit. But not so!
3. Bangladesh: It reported its first case in April and was at 4000 cases per day in June but the number has come down to 2024 in August. It has the lowest test-to-positive-cases ratio in the region, so they might be undercounting. 
4. Myanmar: It has recorded only 375 cases and 6 deaths. Of these 69 returned from India,  it had its first locally transmitted case a few days ago. Low incidence could be because it does get tourists but is a hermit kingdom at large. 

• Other Asian countries:

1. Thailand: In 2019, Thailand had 11 million Chinese tourists. So, it was one of the first countries to record a case after China and recorded high incidence thereafter.But after April 25, Thailand has reported less than 20 cases daily. Thai doctors explain that the fall could be because there is no resistance to wearing masks and Wai, their way to greet people, doesn’t require any contact. But then namaste didn’t help India.
2. Others: Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Yunnan have all reported low case numbers. 
3. Asia, on an average: Fatality figures in Asia are lower than in US and Europe. A reason for this could be that Asians have better immunity, thanks to infectious diseases like Dengue that have attacked them in the past.  

• India: 

1. Migrant crisis: High incidence in India could be due to the migrant crisis that had people travelling in conditions where social distancing wasn’t possible. But a large number of people returned to villages in Bangladesh too.
2. Future: Global hotspot: India is still second to the US in incidence and number of deaths but has crossed the 50,000 cases a day mark and could become the global hotspot in the coming months.
3. Good news: A study in Mumbai’s Dharavi found 57% of people had antibodies against the infection. A survey in five sub-wards in Pune recorded a sero prevalence of 51.5. This points towards a probability of achieving herd immunity sooner than expected.

• The ‘dark matter’ theory: According to it, some people have in-built immunity against Covid-19 and other illnesses and are unlikely to contract Covid-19. This implies herd immunity can be reached after 20-25% of the population has been exposed to the disease. 
• Big Data: Globally, Big Data has been instrumental in accelerating the work to invent a vaccine. Doctors are using data from severely affected cities across the world and applying learnings actively, thus saving more lives than they were saving a few months ago. 
• Summary: India took swift steps such as lockdown but still recorded a high number of cases which continue to increase. Neighbouring countries—Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Myanmar—all have started recording a decline in number of cases. Other Asian countries also have lower incidence than India. India’s migrant crisis could be a reason for high number of cases. A positive news is that two surveys in Pune and Mumbai’s slums have reported presence of antibodies against Covid in over 50% of the people.

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