Act East policy at stake

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Act East policy at stake

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• Whither Act East policy: India negotiated since 2012 on the modalities of the RCEP, and then withdrew in 2019, when the RCEP deal was signed by 15 nations in 2020. Due to friends like Japan, the open offer stands for India to join anytime. But India is not keen, and is willingly shutting itself out, thereby putting a question mark on its stature as an Indo-Pacific power. If India stays on the margins, it will not be at the centre. [RCEP - Regional Comprehensive Economic Cooperation]
• East Asia Summit (EAS): India is also perhaps downgrading its role in the EAS, as seen from the PM's absence in the latest virtual summit. The US President too was missing, but due to the transition. So there's a clear message from India.
• Importance of EAS: India struggled to gain entry into the EAS from its birth in 2005, because the Chinese pushed for ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, S Korea) as the core of East Asia security and economic architecture. Japan helped India get in. The EAS competed with the APEC pushed by USA, of which India could not gain membership. [APEC - Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation]
• India in East Asia: The entry into EAS was acceptance of India's role in East Asia (that's how Asia-Pacific was known then). The Indian PM then pushed the idea of an East Asian community, with ASEAN at its centre. The EAS was a leader led process, thereby becoming influential in regional affairs. And, the EAS had pushed the idea of RCEP in 2012.
• Year 2020: Now that India is out of the RCEP, India's role in the EAS is all the more important, if it wants "Act East Policy" to have any traction at all. It is not automatic that India's withdrawal from the RCEP means its withdrawal from the EAS. India should not send the message that it is not keenly interested in the region now. The Indo-Pacific will suddenly be more vulnerable to Chinese pressure. 
• China and RCEP: The Chinese are celebrating the RCEP as a victory, and even Japan has joined in. The RCEP's conclusion was possible only because China and Japan bilaterally sorted out their tariff reduction arrangements.
• Japan's stand: The Japanese PM wants India to join the RCEP even now. He has also invited the US (under Biden) back into the TPP, now called the CP-TPP. China is currently out of this. [CP-TPP - Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership]
• India's main worry: India's decision on RCEP was driven by the worry of rising imports, but India too stood to gain from reciprocal market access. Yes, India will be saved from more Chinese imports for now, but will lose the large markets for exports as well. If India's access to large markets is restricted, who will want to set up large manufacturing units in India?
• Summary: If India is looking at a strong presence in the Indo-Pacific, it has to engage deeply with ASEAN and East Asian countries. It cannot be only the Quad. The economic dimension is equally crucial. The decades of hard work may go waste otherwise.

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