A Global Recovery's Leading Variables

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A Global Recovery's Leading Variables

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  • Disappear like a miracle: President Trump had hoped that the pandemic would just disappear, but that's far from what's happening. Facts indicate that pandemic's hit to GDP, jobs and output make 2020 one of the three worst years in past century. This is so even when vaccines are arriving.
  • When will normalcy return: Since no one is sure when, the damage will continue to happen in the meantime. The specific policies that countries use will have an impact, as will the potential for hysteresis (long-lasting) effects. Millions of balance-sheets will take time to repair, and bankrupt firms won't rise and shine instantly when virus is brought under control.
  • The China angle: Post 2008 crisis, China's demand engine was the saving grace for world economy, as its GDP grew at 12% annually. But today, its growth is muted (though positive), and trade surplus growing. That means China's support to the world will diminish.
  • Fiscal game: Rich world nations have provided huge fiscal stimulus to their economies, by running large deficits. Emerging economies are not able to do it at that level. That has impacted recovery. Add to that the uncertainties of new virus variants emerging suddenly.
  • Two big questions for 2020: First question is whether the EU and US will launch recovery programmes that are large enough to help global recovery. Second is whether global community will come together to provide the help to developing world, or not.
  • Elections resolved nothing: The US elections haven't given us the answers we sought, as Biden may not have the scale of Congressional support needed to effect big changes in stimulus spending, in 2021 (and beyond). Trump's own attempt at a larger stimulus was opposed by Republican Senate leaders.
  • Republicans' sad game: They are set to repeat their dirty tricks yet again, as they did in 2010-11 with Obama. They are likely to call for fiscal austerity now, so that Biden doesn't gain more traction! (And they had ensured large tax cuts for the rich folks and companies) If that happens, the world will suffer.
  • Europe's story: In a historic move, the EU nations came together to plan the 750 b euro recovery fund. But there was a bad second wave, and EU needs another package!
  • IMF's role: Head of IMF Kristalina Georgieva has called for a $500 b issuance of SDR, that can give a boost to global economy. Many rich countries will donate their shares (allocations) to the needy ones. Trump administration was against this plan, but Biden may reverse it. 
  • Debt restructuring: More international cooperation is now needed for debt restructuring as well. Developing markets are in a precarious position today, and liquidity issues have become solvency problems. Many don't have the money to repay debts. Perhaps it will be for Biden to convince major lenders that another debt crisis will be truly bad for the world.
  • Whatever it takes: It is now time for everyone to rise to the 2021 challenge, before it's too late. The post-pandemic world must be more sustainable, fair, cooperative and competent.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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