1.5° Celsius target for global average temperature is closer

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  1.5° Celsius target for global average temperature is closer

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• The story: Warnings from global environment experts is clear - nations must cut emissions to ensure that the world does not warm up, on average, beyond a certain limit. In 2020, the average temperatures tied with 2016 for the warmest on record, with temperatures 1.2°C above pre-industrial times. The past seven years have been the warmest seven ever recorded, a sign that climate change is accelerating.
• Bad news: There’s about a 40% chance that the global average temperature for at least one of the next five years will be 1.5º Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times—and the odds are only going up. 

1. That level of temperature increase would most likely be temporary, according to an annual climate update led by the UK Met Office and published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 
2. But the figure is significant because most global leaders committed to taking actions that would limit global warming to 1.5ºC and well below 2ºC by the end of the century when they signed the Paris Agreement in 2015. 
3. The world may be getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on climate change.  It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.

• Rising emissions: Man-made global warming is manifesting itself in phenomena such as rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather events. While a year with average temperatures 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times is likely to be a one-off, that doesn’t mean the next half-decade will come in below recent records either. Average temperatures are likely to be at least 1°C warmer in each of the coming five years, with the WMO estimating they’ll be between 0.9°C and 1.8°C. There’s a 90% likelihood that at least one year between 2021 and 2025 will become the warmest on record, dislodging 2016 from the top slot. Increasing temperatures mean “greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.”
• Prognosis: The next five years will likely bring more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean and more rain in high latitudes and the Sahel region of central Africa, compared to the average between 1981 and 2010. This year, southwestern North America will likely be drier than in the past, while the Sahel and Australia are likely to be wetter. 
• Need for a jump: National commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions currently fall far short of what’s needed to fulfill the Paris Agreement, according to a United Nations analysis released in 2021. Global leaders are expected to present more ambitious climate goals ahead of the UN-sponsored COP26 climate talks, due to be held in Glasgow in November. Pressure from the public as well as international competition has generated momentum on the policy front in recent months, although significant issues remain unresolved, including the creation of an international carbon market that would put a price on emissions.
• Knowledge centre:

1. Permafrost - Permafrost is a permanently frozen layer on or under Earth's surface. It consists of soil, gravel, and sand, usually bound together by ice. Permafrost usually remains at or below 0°C (32ºF) for at least two years. Permafrost can be found on land and below the ocean floor. When permafrost thaws, this matter warms up and decomposes, eventually releasing the carbon that it holds as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, gases which have a greenhouse warming effect on the planet. The release of greenhouse gases threatens a vicious circle in the warming of the Earth. 
2. COP 26 - COP26 is the next annual UN climate change conference. COP stands for Conference of the Parties, and the summit will be attended by the countries that signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – a treaty that came into force in 1994. The climate talks, called Cop26, are set for November after being postponed for a year owing to the coronavirus pandemic.  

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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