The new government in Afghanistan will not make India's geopolitical situation any easier in the region.
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Taliban announce the government structure
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- A new government in Kabul: The Taliban announced the formation of an interim government on 8th of September,three weeks after the fall of Kabul and one day after the group claimed to have captured the Panjshir valley, the last remaining pocket of resistance.
- All hopes dashed: Those hoping for a more moderate or modern group than the one that U.S. forces drove from power in 2001 will be disappointed. All of the appointees are men, most are ethnic Pashtuns, and many come from the top ranks of the Taliban leadership—calling the cabinet’s temporary nature into question.
- Acting PM - Mohammad Hasan Akhund, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister will serve as acting prime minister
- Deputy PM - Abdul Ghani Baradar—the former head of the Taliban’s Doha-based political office, has been named as his deputy
- Acting Interior Minister - Even though Akhund is already on a U.N. sanctions list, what has raised the most eyebrows is the appointment of Sirajuddin Haqqani as acting interior minister. Haqqani has a $5 million U.S. bounty on his head as the leader of the Haqqani network, which is designated a terrorist group by the United States.
- Acting Foreign Minister - Amir Khan Muttaqi, a relative moderate and member of the Taliban’s Doha-based negotiating team will take the role of acting foreign minister while Mullah Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar takes on the defense portfolio.
- US reaction: The US warned that the “world was watching closely,” and offered a veiled criticism of the announcement. It highlighted its lack of women and opposition figures. Noting that the cabinet is intended only in a caretaker capacity, the statement said the United States would judge the group by “its actions, not words,” repeating demands for a more inclusive government.
- International recognition: A more clear-cut response from the international community is expected soon as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his German counterpart Heiko Maas co-hosted a ministerial-level summit on Afghanistan with almost two dozen participants. Haqqani’s appointment will likely stall any calls for international recognition of the new government, and may jeopardize the outcome of an international donor conference set for Sept. 13 in Geneva.
- Service collapse: While the cabinet announcement still represents a step forward in the Taliban’s quest for legitimacy, how they handle matters on the ground will decide their ability to placate a restive populace. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs warned that Afghanistan faces the imminent collapse of basic services as food and other aid begins to dwindle.
- Learnings:
- The Taliban group based in Doha, negotiating with the international community, has been sidelined.
- Pakistan's hand is seen in the choice of the new prime minister, Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, and the induction of several Haqqanis (ISI chief reached Kabul in September)
- Haqqanis getting Afghan government berths is bad news for India. Sirajuddin Haqqani, son of the former mujahideen fighter and CIA asset Jalaluddin Haqqani (death announced in September 2018), is head of the Haqqani Network, a sprawling Islamist terrorist mafia with close ties to al-Qaeda, based in Pakistan’s North Waziristan
- Sirajuddin Haqqani is also a designated global terrorist. The Rewards for Justice Program of the United States Department of State has offered a reward of up to $ 10 million for information leading directly to his arrest
- The cabinet is filled with Taliban from the previous regime (1996-2001) led by Mullah Mohammad Omar. Many are on the United Nations terror list, and all are close to the ISI
- Akhund is the man who ordered the destruction, in 2001, of the magnificent standing Buddha statues in the Bamiyan valley (of the sixth century). Akhund is on the UN terror list, belongs to Kandahar (birthplace of the Taliban) and was among the founders. He worked for 20 years as head of the Rehbari Shura, and remained close to Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Taliban
- According to the UN, Akhund is one of “30 original Taliban”
- Baradar had, in March 2020, communicated directly with the American president Donald Trump by phone. His chances were scuttled by the ISI which does not trust him entirely
- No woman found a place in the cabinet, and very few non-Pashtuns did — only three out of 33. This has belied expectations that the “new” Taliban would be “inclusive” and “representative”.
- A potential Indian point of contact has been negated - Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai - a contender for foreign minister.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) What is the likely scenario to evolve in Afghanistan, in light of the structure of the new government's cabinet announced on 8th September, 2021? Speculate. (2) Pakistan's fingerprints are visible everywhere in the new government's formation. Explain this statement critically.
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