An update on how India is placed in the larger game of Quad and AUKUS
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- The story: Th U.S. President Joe Biden is on a personal mission to project an image of unity and cohesion with three of the world’s largest economies as he hosted the leaders of Australia, India, and Japan for a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—the Quad—at the White House.
- First since the pandemic: The summit was the first "in-person" gathering for the group since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It is the latest in a busy Asia-focused diplomacy for the White House following the agreement of the AUKUS defense pact with Australia and the United Kingdom. That focus is underlined by additional one-on-one meetings Biden held with Indian PM Modi and Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga.
- What is the Quad: Biden administration is keen to position the Quad within a “larger fabric of engagement” with the so-called Indo-Pacific region, and is playing down any military intentions for the group.
- The summit concluded with the announcement of several initiatives designed to deepen relations between the four countries including student exchanges alongside plans to counter China’s domination of key industries like semiconductors and 5G networks.
- China’s reaction to the meeting has echoed the tone it took with AUKUS. Asked about the Quad, it decried “exclusive ‘cliques’ targeting other countries” and said the group was “doomed to fail.”
- Quad and vaccines: The Quad leaders are under pressure to deliver on vaccines after an initial agreement to provide one billion doses to Asian countries in March fell victim to India’s record COVID-19 surge, which led to a freeze on vaccine exports. New Delhi’s announcement in Sept '21 that it would restart exports by the end of the year makes a new vaccine declaration likely. Any boost to Asia’s vaccine access would be welcome, the continent trails Europe as well as North and South America in vaccine doses, with 87 doses administered per 100 people compared to 97 per 100 in South America and 102 and 104 per 100 in North America and Europe, respectively. It’s still far ahead of Africa, where only 10 doses per 100 people have been administered.
- Suga's end of the road: Although three of the four Quad leaders can expect to meet again soon, it’s the end of the line for Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who has decided against leading his party into new elections, likely to take place in November '21. The race to succeed Suga is itself a four-way affair, with vaccines minister Taro Kono and former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida the leading candidates ahead of the party vote.
- India’s role: India's slow embrace of Washington, though not formal allies, reflects new regional realities. India’s presence in the Quad is the clearest affirmation that the problem in the East is about something else: the Chinese quest for hegemony driven by a massive power imbalance with its Asian neighbors.
- AUKUS update: The heads of government of Australia, the UK and US announced the formation of a trilateral security pact, to be known by the acronym, AUKUS, the nuclear coalition, which has ignited unprecedented French fury. Without naming China, the US President announced that “in order to deal with rapidly evolving threats,” the US and Britain would share, with Australia, intelligence and advanced technologies in areas like artificial intelligence, cyber-warfare, quantum computing and nuclear submarine construction.
- Rationale - The pact will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US. The three nations are already allied to each other, in more ways than one — the US and UK are NATO allies, and Australia, New Zealand and the US are linked by the ANZUS pact.
- Five Eyes - All three are also members of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance. This announcement places a question mark over the continuing relevance of this forum and its long-overdue actualisation as there is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) for the Indo-pacific realm. The inclusion of a much-diminished, post-Brexit UK in such a long-range alliance is bound to raise a few eyebrows.
- Impact on Indo-Pacific Realm/QUAD - AUKUS could leave a scar on US-EU relations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and weaken the international coalition in the Indo-Pacific. France cancelled a scheduled meeting of the foreign ministers of Australia, France, and India at the UN.
- India excluded - The creation of the AUKUS is an attempt to send a stronger message to China. But China’s description of this alliance as an “exclusionary bloc,” should be food for thought for two members of the Quad/Malabar forums — India and Japan — who have been excluded from the new grouping.
- Island making - China has proceeded to create artificial islands, and to convert them into fortified air bases. Regular “freedom of navigation operations” by the US and allied navies have neither deterred, nor daunted China. Even more aggressive has been China’s conduct along the Sino-Indian border, where it has used massive military deployments to stake claims to large tracts of Indian territory, leading to a conflict in mid-June 2020. India, having counter-mobilised, at considerable economic cost, has stood its ground. This dangerous confrontation is likely to continue.
- Summary: India’s interests may lie in strategic cooperation with France and Europe as well as the Quad and the Anglosphere. India’s diverse relationships in the West must be used to prevent a split in the Indo-Pacific coalition.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the convergence and intersection of the Quad and AUKUS groupings. (2) Explain the emerging role for India in the global geopolitical scene, post AUKUS.
#AUKUS #Quad #China #India #Indo-Pacific
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