Present emissions will turn 33% cropland to waste by 2040

A new report warns of massive impact on agriculture if emissions are not cut sharply

 Present emissions will turn 33% cropland to waste by 2040

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• The story: A new report indicated that the average proportion of global cropland affected by severe drought will likely rise by a third by 2040 if global greenhouse gas emissions continued as usual. The Chatham House report said yield of staple crops could be globally hit in a business-as-usual scenario for emissions, just at the time when more food is required.
• Impact: This will complicate matters as agriculture will be needed to produce nearly 50 per cent more food by 2050 to feed a growing global population. The report examined the compounding threats posed by climate change. Chatam House had published Climate change risk assessment 2021 in anticipation of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in November, CoP26.
• Learning:

1. If highly emitting countries fail to take dramatic climate action to reduce their emissions, many of the climatic changes they anticipate are likely to be locked in by 2040 and become so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.
2. Example is maize, among the three most widely grown crops in the world.
3. The United States, China, Brazil and Argentina, which grow 87 per cent of the world’s maize, could suffer a steep drop in their maize production, all at the same time by the 2040, according to the report. Currently, the probability that a simultaneous big crop failure (greater than 10 per cent) across all four countries is near zero.
4. This will rise to around 6.1 per cent each year in the 2040s. According to the report, during the 2040s there is a 50 per cent chance of synchronous crop failure — the failure of a single crop in multiple regions simultaneously.

• Crop duration periods: By 2050, global cropland areas will be impacted by reductions in crop duration periods of at least 10 days, exceeding 60 per cent for winter wheat, 40 per cent for spring wheat, and 30 per cent for rice. By 2040, almost 700 million people each year will likely be exposed to prolonged severe droughts of at least six month’s duration.

1. North Africa, west Asia, western and central Europe and central America will all see more than 10 per cent of their populations impacted by prolonged severe drought, according to the report.
2. It predicted that east and south Asia will be particularly hard hit, with 230 million people subjected to prolonged drought by 2040.
3. Outside of Asia, Africa will likely have the greatest number of people facing drought, exceeding 180 million by 2050.
4. It urged governments of highly emitting countries to accelerate emissions reductions through ambitious revisions of nationally determined contributions at COP26.

• Knowledge Centre:

1. Global agriculture system - Agriculture is crucial to economic growth: in 2018, it accounted for 4 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) and in some developing countries, it can account for more than 25% of GDP. World agriculture today accounts for 70 percent of water use and generates unsustainable levels of pollution and waste. 1/3 of food produced globally is either lost or wasted. Addressing food loss and waste is critical to improving food and nutrition security, as well as helping to meet climate goals and reduce stress on the environment. Risks associated with poor diets are also the leading cause of death worldwide. Millions of people are either not eating enough or eating the wrong types of food, resulting in a double burden of malnutrition that can lead to illnesses and health crises. Food insecurity can worsen diet quality and increase the risk of various forms of malnutrition, potentially leading to undernutrition as well as people being overweight and obese. The cost of healthy diets is unaffordable for more than 3 billion people in the world.
2. Most grown crops - Humans have been harvesting the small, dry seeds known as grain for thousands of years. The two main categories of grains are (i) cereals, such as wheat, rye, and corn, and (ii) legumes, such as beans, lentils, peanuts and soybeans. Many grains are capable of being stored for long periods of time, easily transported over long distances, processed into flour, oil, and gas, and consumed by animals and humans. In 2020-21, the most grown crops worldwide were Corn (1125 million metric tonnes), Wheat (776 MMT), Rice (milled) (505 MMT), Barley (160 MMT), and Sorghum (62 MMT).
3. Grains for fuel - The use of grains in producing ethanol has increased significantly in recent years. Global ethanol production has tripled since the year 2000. Ethanol is a semi-renewable energy formed by the fermentation of a feedstock, often sugar cane or corn cobs. It can be mixed with gasoline and used as motor vehicle fuel. This hybrid motor fuel emits fewer pollutants than standard gasoline.

• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the interlinking of broader economic growth and agricultural growth, globally. (2) What are the various ways governments can ensure food security for the masses, in an age of climate change?

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