As the COP-26 arrives, some crucial climate issues remain unresolved.
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Biggest climate meet - COP 26 - the prognosis
- The story: The nations of the world are meeting for their most decisive climate summit till date - the COP 26 - in Glasgow from October 31 to November 12. The UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres has said there is a risk of failure of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), following a closed-door informal Leaders’ Level Climate Roundtable. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by 196 parties under the Paris Agreement so far do not represent emission cuts that could keep global warming under 1.5 degrees C (°C) or even 2°C over pre-industrial levels.
- Climate facts: The IPCC’s model pathways stated that it was imperative that global net CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 reaching net-zero emissions around 2050. IPCC in its Physical Science Basis report released August '21 had flagged that each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. It added that surface temperature was 1.09°C higher in 2011-2020 than 1850–1900 period. Hot extremes; frequency of extremely heavy rainfall; the proportion of severe cyclones among other impacts have already increased manifold.
- Extreme events: As the world heads towards 1.5°C warming, there will be an increasing occurrence of extreme weather events which are unprecedented in the observational record. IPCC added that with every additional 0.5°C warming, there will be a discernible increase in intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heatwaves and flooding from heavy rainfall and sea-level rise in coastal cities. Further warming will amplify the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, ocean acidification, marine heat waves, and loss of summer Arctic Sea ice.
- NDC review: The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) conducted a review of NDCs submitted till July 2021. The report said that NDCs of all parties taken together imply an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions of 16% in 2030 compared to 2010. Such an increase, unless actions are taken immediately, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century (2100). This is despite 113 parties submitting new or updated NDCs with greenhouse gas emissions projected to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010.
- To limit temperature, rise to 1.5°C, the world needs a 45% cut in emissions by 2030 so we can reach carbon neutrality by mid-century.
- Instead, the commitments made until now by countries imply an increase of 16% in greenhouse gas emissions – not a decrease of 45% – an increase of 16% in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels.
- Unresolved issues before COP26 happens: One is that the emission mitigation gap to meet the 1.5°C goal is far from being closed. Officials said every country may not have to announce a net-zero emission target by mid-century but their NDCs should put the world on track to achieve net-zero emissions globally by 2050. There is an understanding that the NDCs may not get all the way to a 45% cut by 2030 but it has to be very close to that.
- The second grey area is the pledge to mobilise USD 100 billion annually by 2020 made in 2009 which was key for enhancing climate action by developing countries. This fund hasn’t come through yet and NDC enhancements by emerging economies like India may be dependent on the delivery of this money.
- Guterres asked for at least 50% of total climate finance to be invested in adaptation, basically resilience building in poor and affected countries. Failure of COP 26 would mean loss of lives and livelihoods on a massive scale.
- Roles of different groups: Experts say that along with the role of developed countries in taking larger cuts, China and India will also be important depending on how they plan to enhance their NDCs. Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced China’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060” in a declaration at the UN General Assembly in September 2020.
- Summary: The world is headed for a 1.5°C rise in about 20 years. If it fails to limit it, it will mean a further increase in extreme temperatures and weather events. If the world is headed for 2°C, then with every half a degree warming in global mean temperature, the severity and frequency of extreme weather events will be amplified. There can be compounding of extreme events like tropical cyclones, flooding, storm surge leading to inundation of many coastal areas. The world is already at around 1.1°C warming so it’s urgent to limit global warming as per the Paris Agreement goals.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the three key challenges before COP-26. (2) The extreme weather events will become more probable with every additional rise in average global temperature. Why? Explain. (3) What is the UN's role in global climate change mitigation? Explain.
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