UPSC IAS exam preparation - Economic & Social Development - Lecture 4

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Agriculture and Rural economy in India

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

Even now, a large majority of the Indian population stays in rural India. Hence it is critical to develop a very clear insight into our rural economy and life in rural India so as to tackle the issues and challenges facing our rural economy.

Agriculture forms the bedrock of our economy, producing food for 1.21 billion people (2011 Census) and employing more than half of our population. Pioneering work by agriculture scientists and the efforts of farmers had helped achieve a breakthrough in the agriculture sector in the 1960s, popularly known as the 'Green Revolution'. High agricultural production and productivity achieved in subsequent years has been the main reason for attaining self-sufficiency in food grain production. The country has not witnessed any major technological breakthroughs in agriculture since then. As per the advance estimates for 2010-11 released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) on February 7, 2011 the share of 'agriculture and allied sectors' in the country's GDP declined to 14.2% in 2009-10 as against 52% in 1951-52. Thus, the share of agriculture in our country's GDP has been steadily declining in the past five decades. This is actually a welcome trend, considering the uncertainties in agricultural income and the trends observed in all the developed countries today which were once agrarian economies. By 2019, the stress in agriculture was plainly visible, impacting rural livelihoods too.

2.0 RURAL CREDIT IN INDIA

In India, the Reserve Bank has statutory responsibility in respect of rural credit. Section 54 of the RBI Act, 1934 states that (the RBI has) to maintain an expert staff to study various aspects of rural credit and development and in particular it may:

1. Tender expert guidance and assistance to the National Bank, and 
2. Conduct special studies in such areas as it may consider necessary to do so for promoting integrated rural development.

The Reserve Bank's main objectives relate to maintaining price stability and aiding the process of generating output and employment. In this endeavour, agriculture plays a critical role since agricultural commodities have a relatively significant weight in price indices in our country and also in anchoring inflation expectations. Though most policy issues relating to agriculture and rural development fall within the domain of the central/state governments and agricultural universities, the Bank monitors these developments closely to aid public policy through the financial system - especially in terms of its impact on price stability, financial stability, financial inclusion and credit delivery.

Further, as regards the flow of credit, in which RBI has a role primarily as the regulator of the banking system, the approach is to enhance credit flow to agriculture by removing bottlenecks in credit delivery and ensuring adequate and timely credit at a reasonable price. Finally, keeping in view the criticality of agriculture, the Reserve Bank also articulates its approaches to agriculture through its Annual Reports. This role has become increasingly critical due to the political and economic implications of price instability across the world. 

Three types of loans are provided to Indian farmers to meet their financial requirements-

1. Short term loans
2. Medium term loans
3. Long term loans 

Short Term loans: Short term loans are provided for a period of less than 15 months to meet out expenses of routine farming and domestic consumptions. This type of loan is demanded by farmers for purchasing seeds, fertilisers and for meeting out family requirements.

Medium Term loans: Medium term loans are provided for a period of 15 months to 5 years to purchase agricultural equipment, animals and for land improvements.

Long Term loans: Long term loans are provided for a period of more than 5 years. This type of loan is taken by the farmers to purchase land and expensive agricultural equipment and for repayment of old loans.

Source of loans: The Indian farmer can acquire the above types of loans from two sources:

1. Non-institutional sources like moneylenders, landlords, big businessmen, etc.
2. Institutional sources like commercial Banks, Co-operative Banks and Government sources.

Policy on agriculture credit aims at progressive institutionalisation of credit agencies for providing credit to farmers for raising agricultural production and productivity. Agricultural credit is disbursed through a multiagency network consisting of Co-operatives, Commercial Banks and Regional Rural Banks (RRBs). The govt. decided to rationalize the RRB system, in 2018.

3.0 MARKETING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN INDIA

The role of the agriculture market is to deliver agricultural produce from the farmer to the consumer in the most efficient way. Agriculture markets are regulated in India through the APMC Acts. According to the provisions of the APMC Acts of the states, every APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee) is authorised to collect market fees from the buyers/ traders in the prescribed manner on the sale of notified agricultural produce. The relatively high incidence of commission charges on agricultural/ horticultural produce renders their marketing cost high, which is an undesirable outcome. All this suggests that a single point market fee system is necessary for facilitating free movement of produce, bringing price stabilisation, and reducing price differences between the producer and consumer market segments. Another point to be highlighted is that the cleaning, grading, and packaging of agricultural produce before sale by the farmers have not been popularised by these market committees on a sufficient scale.

Nevertheless, there have been some achievements in leading states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat since the Model APMC Act 2003 has been implemented in those states. Some state governments have granted licences to the private sector for setting up of markets and direct purchase from the farmers in order to provide alternative marketing channels. There is considerable potential for agricultural markets to be competitive. As the APMC was created to protect the interests of farmers, it will be in the fitness of things to give farmers the choice of going to the APMC or not. In the light of this, the need is to pursue further reforms in the state APMC Acts.

3.1 Some initiatives

3.1.1 E-Choupaal

The e-Choupal, the first private sector initiative by the private sector in agricultural marketing, is a business platform consisting of a set of organisational subsystems and interfaces connecting farmers to global markets. This common structure can be leveraged to procure and provide a host of products and services for the farmer as a producer as well as a consumer. The e-choupal business platform consists of three layers, each at different levels of geographic aggregation. Each of the three layers is characterised by three key elements:

1. The infrastructure (physical or organisational) through which transactions take place,
2. The entity (person or organisation) orchestrating the transactions, and
3. The geographical coverage of the layer. 

The first layer consists of the village-level kiosks with internet access (or e-Choupal), managed by an ITC-trained local farmer (called a Sanchalak) and within walking distance (1-5 kilometres) of each target farmer. The relatively sparse population density in rural India justified the location of one e-Choupal per cluster of five villages. The second layer consists of a bricks-and-mortar infrastructure (called hubs) managed by the traditional intermediary who has local knowledge/skills (called a Samyojak in his new role) and within tractorable distance (25-30 kilometres) of the target farmer. The ITC chose to operate the platform on the following three business principles:

1. Free information and knowledge which ensures wider participation by the farmer.
2. Freedom of choice in transactions (farmers, after accessing information at the e-Choupal, are free to transact their own way).
3. Transaction-based income stream for the Sanchalak by tying his revenue stream to the transaction (on a commission basis).

3.1.2 TRIFED

The Government established TRIFED (Tribal Co-operative Marketing Development Federation of India Ltd.) in August 1987. The basic aim of TRIFED was to save tribals from exploitation by private traders and to offer them remunerative prices for their minor forest produce and surplus agriculture products. TRIFED started functioning in April 1988. TRIFED has also been declared an important agency for collecting, processing, storing and developing oil seeds products. TRIFED plays the role of an agent of FCI for Government purchase of wheat and rice. It is also an agent of agriculture and cooperation department of Government for purchase of cereals, pulses and oil-seeds. Agriculture Ministry gives aid to TRIFED for compensation loss incurred due to price fluctuations. 

NAFED (National Agricultural Co-operative Marketing Federation of India Ltd.) has been established in co-operative sector at national level for marketing of agriculture products.

3.1.3 National Agriculture Market (NAM) 

National Agriculture Market (NAM) is a pan-India electronic trading portal which networks the existing APMC mandis to create a unified national market for agricultural commodities. 

The NAM Portal provides a single window service for all APMC related information and services. This includes commodity arrivals & prices, buy & sell trade offers, provision to respond to trade offers, among other services. While material flow (agriculture produce) continue to happen through mandis, an online market reduces transaction costs and information asymmetry. 

Agriculture marketing is administered by the States as per their agri-marketing regulations, under which, the State is divided into several market areas, each of which is administered by a separate Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) which imposes its own marketing regulation (including fees). This fragmentation of markets, even within the State, hinders free flow of agri commodities from one market area to another and multiple handling of agri-produce and multiple levels of mandi charges ends up escalating the prices for the consumers without commensurate benefit to the farmer. 

NAM addresses these challenges by creating a unified market through online trading platform, both, at State and National level. It promotes uniformity, streamlining of procedures across the integrated markets, removes information asymmetry between buyers and sellers and promotes real time price discovery, based on actual demand and supply, promotes transparency in auction process, and access to a nationwide market for the farmer, with prices commensurate with quality of his produce and online payment and availability of better quality produce and at more reasonable prices to the consumer. 

NAM is being deployed in selected 585 regulated wholesale markets in States/UTs desirous of joining the e-platform. Small Farmers' Agribusiness Consortium (SFAC) is operating the NAM with technical support from the Strategic Partner (SP). 400 mandis will be integrated by March 2017 and remaining 185 by March 2018. Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers' Welfare (DAC&FW) is meeting expenses on software and its customisation for the States and is providing it free of cost. DAC&FW is also giving a grant as one time fixed cost subject to the ceiling of Rs.30.00 lakhs per Mandi (other than to the private mandis) for related equipment / infrastructure in 585 regulated mandis, for installation of the e-market platform. State Governments will suggest names of APMCs where this project would be initiated. The targets were not truly achieved by 2019. 

4.0 COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS

The commodity futures market facilitates the price discovery process and provides a platform for price risk management of commodities. Currently, 113 commodities are notified for futures trading of which 50 are actively traded in five national and 16 commodity specific exchanges. Agricultural commodities, bullion, energy, and base metal products account for a large share of the commodities traded in the commodity futures market. The total value of trade in the commodity futures market rose significantly in 2011 compared to that of the previous year due to increased awareness, the advent of new commodity exchanges, increase in global commodity prices, and improved regulation.

To strengthen and broad base the market, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), which is the regulator for commodity futures trading, under the provisions of the Forward Contracts (Regulation)  Act  1952, has taken many initiatives. Some of these are:

1. Conducted awareness programmes during 2011 such as a media campaign under the Jago Grahak Jago Programme about the Dos and Don'ts of trading in the commodity futures market;
2. Police training programmes in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi with regard to dabba trading/ illegal trading;
3. A massive awareness and capacity-building programme for various stakeholder groups, with primary focus on farmers, 
4. On the regulatory front, the FMC undertook measures for the development of the commodity futures market which include ensuring more effective inspection of members of the exchanges on regular basis and in a comprehensive manner covering all aspects of regulatory regime; 
5. Bringing out a guidance manual for improving audit practices, prescribing penalty structure for client code modification and for executing trade; and 
6. Granting exemptions for short hedge for soyabean/oil futures, issuing directives for segregation of client accounts.

5.0 GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES

Earlier, the Planning Commission classified irrigation projects/schemes in India on the following lines :

1. Major Irrigation Schemes-Those with cultivable command areas (CCA) more than 10,000 hectares.
2. Medium Irrigation Schemes-Those with cultivable command areas (CCA) between 2,000 and 10,000 hectares.
3. Minor Irrigation Schemes-Those with cultivable command area (CCA) upto 2,000 hectares. 

Expansion of irrigation facilities, along with consolidation of the existing systems, has been the main part of the strategy for increasing production of foodgrains. With a view to ensuring early completion of projects for providing irrigation benefits to the farmers, Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF) has been in operation since 1995-96. 

The Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP) was launched during 1996-97 to give loan assistance to the States to help them complete some of the incomplete major/ medium irrigation projects which were in an advanced stage of completion.

The National Food Security Mission (NFSM), launched in 2007, is a crop development scheme of the Government of India that aims at additional production of 10, 8, and 2 million tonnes of rice, wheat, and pulses, respectively by the end of 2011-12. The Mission interventions consist of:

1.seeds of improved variety2.soil ameliorants

3.plant nutrients4.farm machines/implements, and

5.plant protection measures

In addition, a special initiative under the name of the Accelerated Pulses Production Programme was initiated in 2010 to boost the production of pulses by active promotion of technologies in 1,000 clusters of 1,000 ha (hectare) each.

Considerable achievements under the NFSM have been recorded during the course of implementation of the programme such as new farm practices, distribution of seeds of high yielding varieties of rice, wheat, pulses, and hybrid rice, and treating area with soil ameliorants to restore soil fertility for higher productivity. Through targeted interventions, the mission has already achieved, a year in advance, 25 millions tonnes of additional production of foodgrains exceeding the target of 20 million tonnes of production set for the terminal year 2011-12, of the 11th Plan.

5.1 Rashtriya Kisan Vikas Yojana (RKVY)

The RKVY was launched in 2007-08 for incentivising states to enhance public investment to achieve 4 per cent growth rate in agriculture and allied sectors during the 11th Plan. The RKVY format permits taking up national priorities as sub-schemes, allowing the states flexibility in project selection and implementation. The sub-schemes include -

1. Bringing Green Revolution to Eastern Region;
2. Integrated Development of 60,000 Pulses Villages in Rainfed Areas;
3. Promotion of Oil Palm;
4. Initiative on Vegetable Clusters;
5. Nutri-cereals;
6. National Mission for Protein Supplements;
7. Accelerated Fodder Development Programme; 
8. Rainfed Area Development Programme; and

Saffron Mission: The RKVY links 50 per cent of central assistance to those states that have stepped-up percentage of State Plan expenditure on agriculture and allied sectors. States have indeed increased allocation to agriculture and allied sectors from 4.88 per cent of total State Plan expenditure in 2006-07 to 6.04 per cent of in 2010-11 (as per the Revised Estimates, Economic Survey 2011-12).

5.2 Other Schemes

The centrally sponsored ISOPOM (Integrated Scheme Of Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm, And Maize) were under implementation during the Eleventh Plan in 14 states for oilseeds and pulses, 15 for maize, and 9 for oil palm. The pulses component has been merged with the NFSM with effect from 1 April 2010. Oilseeds are raised mostly under rainfed conditions and are important for the livelihood of small and marginal farmers in the arid and semi-arid areas of the country.

The horticulture sector includes a wide range of crops, such as fruits, vegetables, roots and tuber crops, flowers, aromatic and medicinal plants, spices, and plantation crops, which facilitate diversification in agriculture. It has been recognised that growing horticulture crops is now an ideal option to improve livelihood security, enhance employment generation, attain food and nutritional security, and increase income through value addition. Over the years, there have been noticeable achievements and significant improvement in the production and productivity of various horticulture crops.

The National Horticulture Mission (NHM) scheme was launched during the Tenth Plan for holistic development of the horticulture sector, duly ensuring forward and backward linkages by adopting a duster approach, with the active participation of all the stakeholders. The supply of quality planting material through establishment of nurseries and tissue culture units, production and productivity improvement programmes through area expansion and rejuvenation, technology promotion, technology dissemination, human resource development, creation of infrastructure for post-harvest management and marketing in consonance with the comparative advantages of each state/region and their diverse agro-climatic conditions are the major programmes of the Mission. A major initiative has been taken during 2011-12 for enhancing the supply of good quality vegetables to metro cities under the Vegetable Initiative in Urban Ousters (VRJC).

The National Bamboo Mission (NBM), a centrally sponsored scheme of the Ministry of Agriculture for harnessing the potential of the bamboo crop in the country, is under implementation in 27 states. It envisages promoting holistic growth of the bamboo sector by adopting an area-based, regionally differentiated strategy to increase the area under bamboo cultivation and marketing. Under the Mission, steps have been taken to increase the availability of quality planting material by supporting the setting up of new nurseries/tissue culture units and strengthening existing ones. To address forward integration, the Mission is taking steps to strengthen marketing of bamboo products, especially those of handicraft items. Besides the Mission has provided financial assistance to different institutions/universities for twenty-three R&D projects aimed at higher productivity of bamboo. Agro-forestry trials comprising bamboo grown along with agricultural/horticultural crops and medicinal plants under different agro-climatic conditions in various states have been initiated.

6.0 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY, 2000

Union Government had announced new National Agricultural Policy in the parliament on July 28, 2000. This policy was planned under the provisions of World Trade Organisation so as to face the emerging challenges of agriculture sector. This policy gives emphasis on promoting agricultural exports after fulfilling domestic demand. The salient features of this policy are:

1. Four percent growth rate p.a. for the next two decades
2. Four per centgrowth rate p.a. target to be achieved by 2005
3. Land reforms to provide land to poor farmers
4. Consolidation of holding in all states of the nation
5. Promoting private investments  in agriculture
6. To provide insurance umberalla for crops to farmers
7. To promote bio-technology
8. Promoting research for developing new varieties and ensuring protection to the developed varieties

7.0 AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE

There are various major crop insurance schemes under implementation in the country: 

National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS): The NAIS is a government-sponsored central-sector crop insurance scheme being implemented in the country since 1999-2000 season (the erstwhile Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme-CCIS of 1985 was merged into it) with the objective of providing financial support to farmers in the event of failure of crops as a result of natural calamities, pests, and diseases. The Agriculture Insurance Company of India Ltd. (AICIL) is the implementing agency for the Scheme. At present, the scheme is being implemented by 25 states and two UTs.

Modified NAIS (MNAIS): With the aim of further improving crop insurance schemes, the MNAIS is under implementation on pilot basis in 50 districts in the country from rabi 2010-11 season. Some of the major improvements made in the MNAIS are

1. Actuarial premium with subsidy in premium at different rates
2. All claims liability to be on the insurer
3. Unit area of insurance reduced to village panchayat level for major crops
4. Indemnity for prevented/sowing/ planting risk and for post-harvest losses due to cyclone
5. On account payment up to 25 per cent advance of likely claims as immediate relief
6. More proficient basis for calculation of threshold yield, and
7. Allowing private sector insurers with adequate infrastructure

Only upfront premium subsidy is shared by the central and state governments on 50:50 basis and claims are the liability of the insurance companies. The scheme has been notified by 17 states by now.

Pilot Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS): Being implemented as a central-sector scheme from kharif 2007 season. The scheme is intended to provide protection to farmers against adverse weather incidence, such as deficit and excess rainfall, high or low temperature, and humidity that are deemed to adversely impact crop production. This is based on actuarial rates of premium but to make the scheme attractive, premium actually charged from farmers has been restricted to be on a par with the NAIS.

Krishi Shramik Suraksha Yojana: The multi-benefit scheme for the agricultural workers, commenced on July 1, 2001, provides life insurance protection, lump sum survival benefit and pension to those who were between the age of 18-50 years-functions on group-basis with minimum of 20 members. No new lives are added even under existing schemes at the time of renewal. Gram Panchayat acts as the nodal agency and with the help of NGO/SHG or any other agency which identify the agricultural workers.

Farm Income Insurance Scheme: The Scheme commenced in January 2004 for providing insurance safeguards and economic security to farmers- run by the Ministry of Agriculture and Indian Agriculture Insurance Company Ltd. jointly:

1. Provides 'broader risk insurance'
2. Conceived to provide  income protection to the farmers by integrating the mechanism of insuring production as well as market risks
3. Farmer's income is protected by ensuring minimum guaranteed income.
4. Subsidy in premium payment.
5. Available for all the States and compulsory for farmers availing crop loans.

NAIS will be withdrawn for the crops covered under it but would continue to be applicable for other crops. 

Varsha Bima (Rainfall Insurance Scheme): Introduced in 2004 south-west monsoon period - covers all natural rainfal risks and provides five different options suiting varied requirements of the farming community:

1. Seasonal rainfall insurance based on aggregated rainfall from June to September
2. Sowing failure insurance based on rainfall between June 15 and August 15
3. Rainfall distribution insurance with the weightage assigned to different weeks between June and September
4. Agronomic Index constructed on the basis of water requirements of crops
5. A catastrophe option covering extremely adverse deviation of 50 per cent and above in rainfall during the season

This scheme covers all natural Rainfal risks at the  following stages:

1. Failure of seed crop either in full or in part due to natural risk
2. Loss in expected raw seed yield
3. Loss of seed crop after harvest
4. At seed certification stage

The Support to State Extension Programmes for Extension Reforms Scheme was launched in 2005-06, aiming at making the extension system farmer driven as well as accountable to farmers by providing for new institutional arrangements for technology dissemination. This has been done through setting up of Agricultural Technology Management Agencies (ATMA) at district level to operationalise the extension reforms. The ATMA has active participation of farmers/ farmer groups, nongovernment organisations (NGOs) and other stakeholders operating at district level and below. Gender concerns are being mainstreamed by mandating that 30 per cent of resources on programmes and activities are to be utilised by women farmers and women extension functionaries.

8.0 NATIONAL MISSION FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE (NMSA)

The NMSA, launched in 2011-12, aims at “enhancing food security and protection of resources such as land, water, biodiversity, and genetic resources by developing strategies to make Indian agriculture more resilient to climate change". The Economic Survey 2011-12 discusses the Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture in the following points:

1. Indian agriculture, with two-third rainfed area remains vulnerable to various vagaries of monsoon, besides facing occurrence of drought and flood in many parts of the country. Natural calamities such as drought and flood occur frequendy in many parts of the country.
2. Climate change will aggravate these risks and may considerably affect food security through direct and indirect effects on crops, soils, livestock, fisheries, and pests. Building climate resilience, therefore, is critical.

Potential adaptation strategies to deal with the adverse impacts of climate change are

1. Developing cultivars tolerant to heat, moisture, and salinity stresses;
2. Modifying crop management practices; improving water management;
3. Adopting new farm practices such as resource-conserving technologies;
4. Crop diversification; improving pest management;
5. Making available timely weather-based advisories; and
6. Crop insurance; and harnessing the indigenous technical knowledge of farmers.

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research has initiated a scheme on National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). The initiative has been planned as a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional effort covering crops, livestock, and fisheries and focusing mainly on adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture. It also has a component for demonstration of climate-coping technologies on farmers' fields in 100 most vulnerable districts. State-of-the-art infrastructure is being set up at key research institutes to undertake frontier research on climate change adaptation and mitigation.

9.0 WT0 AND THE INDIAN AGRICULTURE: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

With the operationalisation of the provisions of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the process of globalisation commenced in the major parts of the world - the non-member countries, in the coming few years, also started negotiating for entry into the club. There has always been an air of confusion among the members and the non-members of the WTO in assessing the pros and cons of globalisation on the health of their economies. The sector which has created the highest number of deliberations in the WTO as well as views and counter-views has been agriculture - an area of utmost concern for the developed and the developing worlds alike. India is no exception to it better say it has been among few countries in the world spear heading the campaign against the biased provisions of the WTO concerning agriculture.

India was skeptical about the issue even before joining the organisation but once it became a part of it, it started assessing the situation objectively and moved towards crisis mitigation. Globalisation as such opened unlimited prospects for the economies but at the same time brought several challenges, too. The challenges were different in nature for the developed and the developing countries. We need to enquire the prospects and the challenges brought by the WTO for the Indian agriculture.

Had the agriculture of the leading and politically vocal developing economies' not be of subsistence level, the course of the world would have been completely different. It is the biggest hurdle in the process of globalisation and the success of the World Trade Organisation! Yes, the process of converting the sector into industry has already started in most of the leading developing economies amidst tough resistance from the farmers, political parties and the NGOs (non-government organisations) alike.

The oldest and the first document regarding the impact of the implementation of the provisions of the WTO, Uruguay Round (1995- 2005) was prepared jointly by the World Bank, the GATT and the OECD According to the joint document, the WTO provisions were supposed to have the following positive impacts on the world trade:

• By 2005 there will be an addition of $745 billion in the world merchandise trade.
• The GATT Secretariat provided a full break-up of the above-projected trade increase in the following way:

1. The clothing sector to have a share of 60 per cent.
2. The agricultural, forestry and fisheries products to have a share of 20 per cent.
3. The processed food, beverages and drinks to have a share of 19 per cent.

It means that due to the implementation of the WTO provisions, there will be only one per cent increase in the trade of all other goods excluding the above-cited sectors. It was a highly inflated view and became a matter of debate around the world. But the areas which were projected to have very high increase in their trade were not mere projections either. Member countries went home and started going for their own studies, estimations and projections-India being no exception. The Indian situation has a few striking features

The products which were projected to have the maximum increase in their trade, India had a traditional great export potential in them. It means the WTO has a great prospect for agriculture in store as maximum goods fell in the agriculture sector. Assuming that India's share in the world exports improves from 0.5 per cent to 1.0 per cent, and India is able to take advantage of the opportunities that are created, the trade gains may conservatively be placed at $2.7 billion extra exports per year. A more generous estimate will range from $3.5 to $7 billion worth extra exports.

The NCARR (National Council for Applied Economic Research) survey of the WTO on the Indian economy is cited as the best document in. this area. The survey made the following observations

1. The exports of agricultural products will be boosted by the WTO accepted regime.
2. Only the foodgrains trade that too of wheat and rice were projected to be around $270 billion.
3. The survey also pointed out that almsot 80-90 per cent of the increased supply of foodgrains to the world is going to originate from only two countries China and India as they are having the scope for increasing production.
4. But the survey painted a very wretched picture about the preparedness of Indian agriculture sector to exploit the opportunities. It concluded China to be far far better than India is this matter.
5. It suggested almost every form of preparedness for the agriculture sector (its glance we may have been on the second Green Revolution in India- basically the revolution is modelled on the findings and suggestions by the survey).
6. Lastly, the survey ended at a high note of caution and concern that if India fails  in its  preparations  to make agriculture come out as a winner in the WTO regime the economy will emerge as   the   biggest importer   of   the agricultural products. At the same time the cheaper agri-imports might devastate Indian agricultural structure and the import-dependence may ruin the prospects of a better life for millions of poor Indians.
7. Even if India does not want to tap the opportunities of the globalising world it has to gear up in the agriculture sector since the world market will hardly be able to fulfill the agri-goods demands of India by 2025 AD. It means, it is only India which can meet its own agri-goods demand in the future.

There is no doubt in it that the WTO has brought probably the last opportunity to enable our masses to have better income and standard of living via better income coming from agriculture. But provided we go for the right kind of preparation at the right time. There are enough prospects, undoubtedly.

By the year 2019, various subsidy related disputes of India remained unresolved at the WTO.

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