The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban was more a failure of President Ghani's politics and management.
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No bullets fired - Kabul was Taliban's - An analysis
- The story: The Taliban sheltered the al-Qaeda for a long time, and were party to the terror attacks on US soil in September 2001. The US, in turn, made the Taliban pay the price and uprooted its government by 2002. A long stay in Afghanistan began, with the hope of making it a modern country.
- Times change: But the US concluded that they lost the war in Afghanistan, as was visible in the March 2021 letter by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, saying the Taliban would make “rapid territorial gains” once the American troops were out. The President Joe Biden himself has never said the Taliban would be defeated. All estimates of the fall of Kabul turned out to be over-estimates, and the capital fell in hours without a fight.
- President Trump: When Trump took the decisive move to sign the peace agreement with the Taliban in February 2020, it was all over. The road to the Taliban's final victory started. Though Trump appointed a special envoy for Afghanistan, who held direct talks with the Taliban bypassing the Afghan government and signed an exit agreement, its end result was dramatic.
- As per that agreement, the U.S. could not get any concession from the Taliban towards a political settlement
- The Taliban did not even go for a ceasefire
- US only wanted to get their troops and diplomats out of Afghanistan safely
- The US agreed to withdraw its troops by May 1, 2021 in return for assurances Taliban that no transnational terrorist groups would operate from Afghan soil
- Victory and defeat: This boosted the Talibani morale, while crushing the Afghan army's confidence. The Doha deal was celebrated as the Taliban's victory over America. From 2002 onwards, the Taliban’s main challenge was the U.S. air power, which had caused devastating blows to them. Since the Doha agreement, the U.S. airstrikes reduced, and the Taliban stopped attacks on American forces. The Taliban could now regroup and plan for the next offensive and refurbish the supply lines. They were already the "legitimate" group. They began talking to regional players such as China, Russia and Iran to neutralise their role in the coming big fight.
- What was President doing: The Ghani administration was divided, and since the last two presidential elections — 2014 and 2019 — were disputed, the U.S. had to interfere, striking a deal between Mr. Ghani and his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah. That is how a unity government was formed. Though Ghani projected himself as the rightful Pashtun leader of Afghanistan, he could not take other ethnic leaders along, who made up the erstwhile Northern Alliance that resisted the Taliban in the 1990s. Ghani just failed in getting all anti-Taliban forces together, and weakened everyone.
- Mr. Abdullah, half Pastun and half Tajik, was a rival who was accommodated in the government.
- Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Uzbek warlord and Mr. Ghani’s former Vice-President who’s facing serious allegations, was living abroad.
- Atta Muhammad Nur, the Tajik “strongman” in the north, had challenged the government. He was sacked as the Governor of Balkh province in January 2018.
- Ghani administration was a loose confederation of different fiefdoms, kept together by the American troops.
- Americans are going: As soon as the glue was gone, it fell apart. The Taliban did not need to do much at all, from the first offensive on May 1, the day the remaining U.S. troops started withdrawing.
- Then, the government had provincial centres under its control and set up outposts across the rural areas, which were provided supplies by air.
- American air support was suddenly gone, as also the intelligence agents and contractors serving Afghanistan’s war planes and helicopters.
- This broke the Afghan air force, the only superiority the Afghan troops had in the war.
- The Taliban launched an assassination campaign, targeting Afghan pilots!
- Supply lines dead: As the air force came under pressure, the supply lines through remote outposts went dead. The Taliban easily overran government outposts through the country’s north, which used to be the epicentre of the anti-Taliban resistance. So villages first, cities later, and Kabul in the end.
- Won't kill you: On August 6, when the Talibanis attacked Zaranj city, they allowed the government troops to walk away if they surrendered with their equipment. Those who resisted were killed. So Afghan troops, unpaid for months, and lacking reinforcements, could either surrender and save their lives or fight to death for a government that was collapsing. In Ghazni, the provincial Governor handed the keys to his office to a Taliban commander along with flowers. In many cities, the Taliban freed prisoners and recruited them to their ranks. One by one, all cities fell.
- The last straw: As Kabul was surrounded on 14th August, Ghani said his focus was on remobilising the Afghan troops, something practically impossible. By the evening, Mazar-e-Sharif in the north, one of the most anti-Taliban cities, fell. Ghani then left the Presidential palace for the U.S. Embassy where he spent some time, and then flew out of the capital. The Taliban were finally in Arg-e-Shahi (Citadel of the King), the Presidential palace built by the 19th century Emir Abdur Rahman Khan. Afghanistan was where it was 20 years ago, once more. The Taliban had won. Ghani had lost.
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