How geopolitics in South Asia will change now - an analysis

An analysis of how South Asia's politics may change in coming years, due to the Talibani takeover of Afghanistan

 How geopolitics in South Asia will change now - an analysis

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• The story: As Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, it seemed like a defining moment for the entire region and its geopolitics. Everyone was reminded of the 1989 exit of Soviet Union, and its fallout then.
• What changes: The exact stance that the Taliban now adopt, will decide many facets of the new story. But in the new chapter of "great power competition", the Taliban may prove to be a central piece.
• What went wrong: First, the American decision to pull out troops unconditionally without waiting for a negotiated political settlement sowed the seeds of the State's collapse. The Talibanis were emboldened, and Afghan state demoralised. Second, the Afghans' psychological denial that the US would indeed leave as they warned, coupled with a lack of military strategy, poor supplies and logistics, indefensible posts, unpaid salaries, phantom rolls, and a sense of betrayal, abandonment and demoralisation, all played a role in the capitulation. The air power vanished suddenly, and it came crashing down. Some experts claim that the Talibanis had separately struck one-to-one deals with the provincial heads, who surrendered without fighting a bullet. In the end, the ANA had no choice but to give up.
• Vacuum created: An axis of regional powers such as China, Pakistan, Russia, and the Taliban, have already started filling this power vacuum, shaping, thereby, the contours of the region’s geopolitics based on their individual and common interests. Most have deep anti-American feelings in their hearts.

1. China's grand strategic plans for the region will now face little resistance. It will strengthen its efforts to bring every country in the region, except India, on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) platform.
2. Chinese encirclement of India will become deeper, and China may be far less accommodative towards India including on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
3. In bilateral trade, India needs trade with China more than the other way round. Perhaps a rapprochement with China may be the best road ahead.

• Terror centre: It is a given that the Taliban rule may lead to increased terror incidents in the region. So far, the presence of the US had contained it, as had the threat of Financial Action Task Force worries for Pakistan. But now, that's not material. If many in the international community recognise the Taliban regime, as China and Russia have indicated, it would make things trickier. It is unlikely that the Taliban will export terror to other countries but they may act as inspiration to disgruntled elements in the region (Taliban’s victory against the world’s sole superpower is a big deal).
• India's central Asia outreach: It is quite clear now that the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan has stymied India's ‘mission (Connect) Central Asia’. All of India's investments in Afghanistan are now entirely at the Taliban's mercy (and perhaps, Pakistan's).

1. Can India try peace with Pakistan? The local politics doesn't allow it, but India may opt for a ‘cold peace’ even.
2. But stability between India and Pakistan depends a great deal on how politics in Kashmir plays out, and whether India is able to pacify the aggrieved sections in the Valley.

• Not a smooth road for Pakistan: Pakistan's PM Imran Khan said the Taliban were a force that ‘unshackled the chains of slavery’. Pakistan's deep state (ISI) considers them a strategic asset. But ultimately, the Taliban do not even recognise the Durand Line! Terror groups inside Pakistan may get fancy ideas, motivated by the stunning Taliban victory.
• Summary: Today, no major power would like to see Afghanistan re-emerge as a global sanctuary of terror. In that sense, 2021 is not 1996. The world imposed new constraints on Pakistan’s support for terror also, via the FATF. Taliban can be taken in confidence for any kind of development (political or economic) in the region. For India, talking to the Taliban may allow it to seek security guarantees from the insurgents in return for continued development assistance or other pledges as well as explore the possibility of the Taliban’s autonomy from Pakistan.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the two major challenges that will arise for India's Central Asian strategy now, given the Talibani takeover of Afghanistan. What would be the ideal strategy to counter those? (2) The rise of the Taliban puts many countries under pressure, despite visible elation on their faces. Explain with reference to China and Pakistan.
  

#Talibn #Afghanistan #Terrorism #Pakistan #FATF #China #BRI #IndianForeignPolicy

 

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