Emissions analysis of global power sector emissions

A green transition is happening around the world, but it is not at the pace desired. An update.

 Emissions analysis of global power sector emissions

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• The story: Globally, electricity is produced either through fossil fuel sources, or by clean sources (renewables). There is a clear shift from the former to the latter now, though it will take time.
• Story of 2021: Rising global electricity demand in the first half of 2021 outpaced growth in clean electricity, leading to an increase in emissions-intensive coal power. This resulted in a spike in global power sector emissions beyond pre-pandemic levels.

1. Wind and solar are driving the growth in the clean electricity sector.
2. For the first time wind and solar-generated over a 10th of global electricity, and also for the first time overtook nuclear generation.
3. Electricity data from 63 countries (analsed by Ember), representing 87% of global electricity demand, showed these trends.
4. Global power sector emissions rebounded in the first half of 2021, increasing from the dip seen in the corresponding period in 2020, recording a 5% rise in emissions from the pre-pandemic levels seen in the first six months of 2019.

• Renewables rising: The upwards trajectory of wind and solar is a rapid one: More than doubling from 5% of the world’s electricity as recently as 2015. It is the first time that wind turbines and solar panels have generated more than all the world’s nuclear power plants. Nuclear energy’s share of global electricity has remained unchanged in the same period, as fewer new plants are being built outside China, and older nuclear plants are closed in OECD countries.
• Green recovery: No country has truly achieved a ‘green recovery’ in an absolute sense for their power sector, with structural change in both higher electricity demand and lower carbon dioxide-intensive power sector emissions. Although Norway and Russia appear in the ‘green recovery’ quadrant, this is due to temporary factors — mostly better rains giving higher hydro generation — rather than a significant structural improvement in the electricity sector.

1. Several countries including the United States, European Union, Japan and Korea achieved lower power sector CO2 emissions compared to pre-pandemic levels, with wind and solar replacing coal, but only in the context of suppressed electricity demand growth.
2. Rising emissions in 2021 should send alarm bells across the world, as the world is not building back better; it is building back badly.
3. A lightning-fast electricity transition this decade is critical to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees. The electricity transition is happening but not with the urgency required: emissions are going in the wrong direction.”

• Grey recovery: Countries with rising electricity demand also saw higher emissions, as coal generation increased as well as wind and solar. These ‘grey recovery’ countries are mostly in Asia, including China, Bangladesh, India, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Pakistan and Vietnam. These countries have yet to decouple emissions and electricity demand growth.

1. The fastest electricity demand growth was in Mongolia, China and Bangladesh, which all saw coal meet a large amount of this rise.
2. Bangladesh was the only country with no increase in clean electricity.
3. Vietnam was the only ‘grey recovery’ country where solar and wind met all of the increase in electricity demand, but power sector CO2 emissions still rose 4% because of a switch from gas to coal generation.

• Indian story: In India, the continued impact of the pandemic in the first half of 2021 kept electricity demand muted and coal rises to a minimal. Electricity demand between January and June 2021 was only 3% higher than the corresponding period in 2019 — one of the lowest increases in Asia as pandemic restrictions continued. Almost three-quarters (72%) of India's increase in demand was met by growth in solar (47%) and wind (9%). But coal generation increased by 4%, to fill the remaining gap in demand.
• A long road: The road to clean energy is long and winding. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero 2050 roadmap shows that advanced countries must get to 100% clean electricity by 2035, while the rest of them by 2040. The EU and the US are slowly rising to this challenge, as the EU’s Fit for 55 package assures a fast step-up in clean electricity. US President Joe Biden pledged 100% clean electricity by 2035. Developing economies like India and China have a harder task ahead, as their electricity demand is rising faster, but the proportion of clean electricity is lower.
• Summary: The world is making a green transition, but the pace needs to be quickened, if the damaging impact of climate change is to be contained.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the concept of "green transition". What three steps are crucial in that process? (2) Compare and contrast the 'green transition' being attempted by India, vis-a-vis other Asian nations, and the West. How fast can this transition be made? (3) What are the climate change imperatives that make a green transition mandatory? Explain.
  

#GreenTransition #Renewables #Carbon #ClimateChange #FossilFuels

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