China's 3-child policy approved

What went wrong with the Chinese population policy - an analysis

 China's 3-child policy approved

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• The story: China has formally endorsed the three-child policy proposed by the ruling Communist Party. The Party is spooked by a steep decline in birth rates.
• New policy: The revised "Population and Family Planning Law" allows Chinese couples to have three children. It was passed by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC). The reluctance of the Chinese couples to have more children due to mounting costs has been considered, and the new law also has social and economic support measures.

1. The new law gives supportive measures in finances, taxes, insurance, education, housing and employment, to reduce families' burdens as well as the cost of raising and educating children.
2. The goal is to promote a balanced long-term population growth.

• From one to two: China had permitted all couples to have two children in 2016, scrapping the draconian decades-old one-child policy which policymakers blame for the demographic crisis in the country. The one-child policy implemented for over three decades prevented over 400 million births.
• From two to three: The decision to permit the third child came after the once-in-a-decade census which showed that China's population grew at the slowest pace to 1.412 billion amid official projections that the decline may begin as early as 2022. The demographic crisis was expected to deepen as the population of people above 60 years grew to 264 million, up by 18.7 per cent in 2020.
• Give us freedom: As the calls for the government to do away with the family planning restrictions grew louder due to the concerns that the declining population may result in serious labour shortages and negatively impact the world's second-largest economy, the CPC decided to permit a third child.
• No enthusiasm: The two-child policy failed to enthuse couples to have a second child, due to heavy expenditure in raising the children. The poor response made experts suggest the government offer parents one million yuan (USD 156,000) for each newborn child to shore up the country's declining birth rate. Some said the three-child policy would have a positive impact on China‘s birth rate, but not as much as the authorities hoped for. Why not? The high costs of housing and education, as well as a lack of job protection for women, are strong economic constraints on having children.
• Indian situation: Projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century, a UN report said in 2019. In 2019, India had an estimated population of 1.37 billion and China 1.43 billion and by 2027 India's population is projected to surpass China's. China is also facing the risk of falling into the trap of low fertility, as it recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth consecutive year. China's total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, much lower than the replacement rate of 2.1.
• Summary: When the total population enters negative growth, a country faces shortage of demand. A scenario emerges in which it then has a lower share of workers and a higher burden of elderly care. China is also eyeing a progressive, flexible and differentiated path to raising the retirement age.

#China #PopulationPolicy #WorldEconomy #WorldPolitics #SocialIssues #CPC #XiJinping #Demographics