China building many more missile silos

The discovery of many new missile silos being built in China has re-invigorated the debate on nuclear weapons.

 China building many more missile silos

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• The story: Eyes in the sky have caught some new Chinese projects, that potentially could be threatening to India. Satellite pictures revealed what appears to be an ongoing Chinese project to prepare vast new fields of missile silos that could possibly be used to launch nuclear weapons at China’s adversaries, including the United States and India.
• Where: China is building at least three missile silo fields in Yumen in Gansu province, near Hami in Xinjiang province, and at Hanggin Banner, Ordos City, in Inner Mongolia. It appears that China is constructing around 120 missile silos at Yumen, around 110 silos in Hami, and 29 in the Hanggin Banner field. Earlier this year, 16 missile silos were detected in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force’s (PLARF) Jilantai training area, also in Inner Mongolia. All these were discovered by different researchers, using commercial satellite images.
• Structure: The Yumen and Hami fields are identical, and the silos are positioned in a perfect grid pattern, roughly 3 km apart. Some of the silos have dome shelters. The fields are supported by nearby PLARF facilities. For several decades before these discoveries in 2021, China operated only 20 missile silos for its DF-5 liquid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Now, China could have 250-270 new missile silos, more than 10 times the number it had maintained for several decades.
• Why do all this: This could be China’s attempt to move towards a launch-on-warning (LOW) nuclear posture. LOW refers to a launch at an adversary on detection of an incoming missile before the adversary’s missile hits its target.

1. China’s nuclear strategy has remained largely unchanged since 1964, when it first exploded a nuclear device. It is based on achieving deterrence through assured retaliation.
2. The crucial requirement for this is the survivability of China’s nuclear arsenal following the first strike — conventional or nuclear — by an adversary. (c) In order to move to the LOW posture, China would have to mate a few warheads with missiles, and keep them in alert status for a quick response. Currently, China stores its warheads and missiles in a de-alerted status separately under different commands.
3. However, silos alone, at such an early stage of construction, are not conclusive evidence of China’s move to LOW.

• Scale of nuclear arsenal: It enables China to achieve its goal of increasing its nuclear warhead stockpile. China has around 350 nuclear warheads. Estimates are that 272 of these 350 warheads are assigned to operational forces; the remaining 78 have been produced for China’s new DF-41 solid-fuel road-mobile ICBM. China has around 150 land-based missiles that can deliver between 180-190 nuclear warheads to some parts of the United States. If all the new silos are loaded with a single-warhead missile, the count would increase to 410-440. If the silos on completion are loaded with the DF-41s, which can carry up to two-three warheads per missile, this count would rise to 930-940 warheads. China would have to increase the number of DF-41s in its inventory, and almost triple its nuclear warheads — unlikely in the immediate future. However, the construction of the silos does indicate an increasing trend in China’s nuclear warheads and DF-41 missiles going forward.
• Decoy silos: China worries about the improvement in US missile defence systems and conventional precision strike weapons, which could undermine China’s nuclear deterrence. At the National People’s Congress in March 2021, President Xi Jinping directed the military to “accelerate the creation of advanced strategic deterrent” capabilities. The newly discovered silos could be an initiative to enhance deterrence by keeping the adversary guessing. This could be China’s shell game — where one, some, or all silos could have missiles, forcing the aggressor to target all of them during an escalation. The aggressor would have to waste more warheads or precision-guided weapons to destroy only a few missiles, or perhaps target empty silos.
• Summary: China is preparing itself for the next few decades, where it knows well its relatively weak nuclear weapons strength vis-a-vis both the US and Russia.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the difference between a ballistic missile and a cruise missile. Which one is deadlier, and why? (2) China's strategic nuclear posture is not what India's is - No First Use policy. Explain the difference.
  

#NuclearWeapons #China #Science #Technology

 

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