Belarus faces new sanctions

Belarus faces new sanctions, and its dictator new problems

 Belarus faces new sanctions

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• The story: The story of Belarus is a tragic one, where a despotic regime has crushed all democratic voices. The UK, the US and Canada have issued fresh trade, financial and aviation sanctions, to increase pressure on the country’s leader Alexander Lukashenko.
• The dictator: Europe's longest-serving ruler, President of Belarus (Lukashenko) took office in 1994 amid the chaos caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. He is Europe's "last dictator", and has tried to preserve elements of Soviet communism.

1. He has been in power for 26 years, keeping much of the economy in state hands, and using censorship and police crackdowns against opponents.
2. In 2020, after Lukashenko was announced as the winner in elections, protests broke out in the capital, Minsk which were met with a violent security crackdown.

• Target of new sanctions: The focus is on the regime and Lukashenko’s associates as precisely as possible and discourage Western companies from doing business with Belarus. The sanctions restrict exports of surveillance and military technology to Belarus, and partially ban imports of potash fertilizer, petrol and petrol-based products from Belarus. The EU and US have sanctioned Belarus’ tobacco industry, which contributes to the lucrative cigarette smuggling trade. More than 90% of cigarettes smuggled into Lithuania came from Belarus in 2019. Western countries also blacklisted some Belarusian citizens.
• Potential impact: Targeting Belarus’ potash sector was a strategic move insofar as the country is the second largest exporter of the fertilizer behind Canada, covering 21% of the world’s potash exports in 2019. But, sanctions cover only 15% of all potash exports to the EU. Russia represents 49.2% of all Belarusian trade and Belarus can export its sanctioned goods across the Russian border for re-export from there. The impact of restrictions on dual-use goods, monitoring and interception goods and technology, and goods used in cigarette manufacturing would be negligible.
• Russia's stance: Since President Putin has tense relations with Lukashenko, the sanctions are an opportunity for Russia to impose its own conditions on Lukashenko’s survival in control of a crumbling state, which Russia has financially supported for decades.
• Belarus’ stand: It has accused the U.K., US and Canada of ignoring the will of the Belarusian people and employing the "entire arsenal of 'cold war' methods" in pursuit of regime change.
• Summary: It is high time that President of Belarus ensures the formation of a legitimate government that could address the country’s vital problems. The authoritarianism cannot continue for ever.

 

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