US exiting Afghanistan - Implications

The abrupt exit of US from Afghanistan has started a new unstable chapter in the region.

 US exiting Afghanistan - Implications

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• The story: The speedy withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has led to a rapid Taliban advance all over.
• Regional powers: This sudden shock has pushed Afghanistan into the court of regional powers that now have the burden of managing the military vacuum created by the US retreat. Divergent regional strategic perspectives, however, limit the prospects for a sustainable consensus on Afghanistan.
• Who are the players:

1. The Taliban - It remains a major variable, and if it fails to accommodate the interests of all Afghans, the stage will be set for the next round of the civil war in Afghanistan. The Taliban has clarified it will pursue independent policies.
2. China - The US withdrawal from Afghanistan today reinforces the strongly held conviction in China that the US is in terminal decline. China is offering an alternative to the Western model of international governance, is seen in China as a great ideological victory. For China, potential Taliban support to the Xinjiang separatist groups is a major concern.
3. India - It will have three critical areas in dealing with the Taliban - (a) Protecting its investments, which run into billions of rupees, in Afghanistan; (b) Preventing a future Taliban regime from being a pawn of Pakistan; (c) Making sure that the Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups do not get support from the Taliban.
4. Others - None of the regional countries want to see Afghanistan becoming the nursery of international terror again under the Taliban. Iran can’t ignore the Sunni extremism of the Taliban and its oppressive record in dealing with the Shia, and Persian-speaking minorities. Pakistan worries about the danger of the conflict spilling over to the east of the Durand Line, and hostile groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) gaining sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

• Approach of India: The era of peace in Afghanistan secured by the US military presence has come to an end and will place new constraints on India’s ability to operate inside Afghanistan. India lacks direct physical access to Afghanistan, so having effective regional partners is essential for it. Pakistan has the capability to destabilise any government in Afghanistan but lacks the power to construct a stable and legitimate order in Afghanistan. The contradiction between the interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan is an enduring one. Afghans also deeply value their independence. India should focus on intensifying its engagement with various Afghan groups, including the Taliban and finding effective regional partners to secure its interests.
• Summary: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO) should be used in dealing with the Afghan questions and achieve stability. An independent, sovereign, democratic, pluralistic and inclusive Afghanistan is crucial for peace and stability in the region. The Afghan peace process, as stated by India’s Afghan policy, should be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled. If India remains active and patient too, many opportunities could open up in the new Afghan phase.

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