US war in Afghanistan ends, what about refugees now

The story: As news from Afghanistan goes from bad to worse, the Taliban took over more districts as Afghan forces surrendered military outposts, and h

US war in Afghanistan ends, what about refugees now

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• The story: As news from Afghanistan goes from bad to worse, the Taliban took over more districts as Afghan forces surrendered military outposts, and had their weapons seized. With no respite from the violence, Afghans are fleeing. In the north, where the fighting has intensified, more than 56,000 people have been displaced. A major refugee crisis is starting.
• No end to crisis: After more than 40 years of war, refugee crises is a standard feature of life in Afghanistan. There are nearly 3 million registered Afghan refugees worldwide, equivalent to around 1 in 10 of all refugees.

1. A perfect storm of five factors suggests the next crisis could be especially acute: (i) an emboldened and expanding insurgency, (ii) terrorist violence, (iii) the U.S. withdrawal, (iv) a fading peace process, and (v) severe drought conditions to boot.
2. Those fleeing are likely to seek entry in Pakistan and Iran, already home to several million Afghan refugees each.
3. The United Nations estimates around 585,000 “undocumented returnees” from Iran and nearly 7,000 returnees from Pakistan reentered Afghanistan this year.
4. Europe, via the Mediterranean Sea route, has become an increasingly popular destination for Afghan refugees, but European Union states have deported thousands of Afghans too. Increased fighting in northern Afghanistan means Central Asian states will also face influxes of refugees.
5. In the event of a refugee crisis, many countries will face international pressure to accommodate Afghan refugees. But there will also be internal pressures not to admit them.

• Fencing itself up: Pakistan is building a fence along its border with Afghanistan, and a key suspect in a recent terror attack was revealed to be of Afghan origin. Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf said that it was time for the dignified return of Afghan refugees.
• What to do: The least politically risky option for Afghanistan’s neighbors is to house refugees in facilities just across their borders, hoping the U.N. and aid groups will help finance them. EU states, and especially those that participated in the NATO mission, should also do their part to accommodate Afghan refugees. In recent years, they have deported them using the excuse they are economic migrants rather than war refugees. The country is now embroiled in full-scale civil war, so that excuse does not work.
• US role: The crisis is an opportunity for the Biden administration to back up its pledge to help restore U.S. global leadership. It should increase funding to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and related institutions to ensure Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian states have the support they need to help Afghan refugees.
• Summary: The best way to tackle a refugee crisis is to give people fewer incentives to leave. As the fighting mounts, this will admittedly become a hard sell. 

 

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