An analysis of India's foreign policy in a rapidly changing global economy
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India's foreign policy approach - time for a fresh look
- The story: The world is changing, and how! After living with the pandemic since January 2020, the world is now recovering and bringing changes in the global economic order. A new global tax, pushed by the US, is being worked upon to establish a minimum corporate tax regime. Carbon border levies are being unveiled, by the European Union, to aid net zero emission goals. Binding dispute resolution provisions are also being sought to be embedded into international agreements. Technological decoupling is also taking place, leading to new value chains being set up.
- Details: Thus, climate, health, digital technology and geo-economics will define the global conversation. Since a lot of international relationships will be defined by these changes, India has to remain agile and shape its policies accordingly.
- Aspects of India's foreign policy: Indian foreign policy has given importance to the frictions and friendships relating to geopolitics such as a demand for nuclear disarmament, the Non-Aligned Movement as a response to the Cold War, support for United Nations (UN) peacekeeping, a call for adoption of Comprehensive convention on international terrorism etc. Geo-economics came second.
- Environment initiatives: The PM espoused climate action as an issue where what India does within its borders to benefit its citizens also matters well beyond our borders. This has both economic and political benefits. India is among the select few countries to have hosted the COP of all three Rio conventions on climate change (UNFCCC), biodiversity (Convention on Biological Diversity) and land (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification).
- Pandemic and the foreign policy: During the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, India’s foreign policy apparatus was key in securing essential global supplies, though vaccination challenges remain.
- Human resource issue - Migration and human mobility are emerging issues. India and Africa will be the largest repositories of young populations while most other societies age. Lack of opportunities in India create an obvious situation of Brain Drain.
- Science and Technology issue - Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global problem to which the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic may further contribute. Global concerns regarding cybersecurity are also rising.
- China issue - Militarily, China has further strengthened itself and now seeks to dominate the Indo-Pacific Ocean with its announcement of its third aircraft carrier’s launch in 2021. India is undertaking a comprehensive military reorganisation to prepare itself.
- India-Russia ties issue - Though India and Russia share a long history of strategic and economic cooperation, the post-Cold war Russia and China strategic convergence remains a foreign policy issue for India. The sanctions imposed on Russia after Crimea's annexation in 2014 has pushed Russia towards a tighter embrace of China. This seems to signal reduced interest in countries such as India. India’s closeness to the U.S. has also weakened its links with traditional friends such as Russia and Iran.
- What India can do: Issues like regulation of trans-boundary digital behemoths, big data management, trade issues and disaster & humanitarian relief can prove to be beneficial by being addressed through the prism of a broader approach taking into account the global dimensions. There is a need to expand India’s foreign policy agenda beyond the traditional thinking of what is geopolitical. Geo-economics will surely impact geopolitics, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a relevant example. Climate, health security and digital technologies are becoming aspects of geopolitical contestation of different kinds. India’s willingness to encompass these areas, which it previously considered beyond the pale of its foreign policy posture, will be key to its ability to navigate the coming wave of global changes. India’s presidency of G20 in 2023 will provide it the opportunities to weave geo-economic themes with geopolitical interests. The G20 summit will provide the opportunities to articulate and be vocal on issues that matter to the world, and be proactive to further its interests.
- Summary: The way forward for Indian foreign policy should be "strategic hedging", a combination of bolstering domestic as well as external strategic capabilities and creating economic dependencies abroad through enhanced manufacturing and exports. A balance between capabilities and reach is what India needs to master strategic hedging with other countries. Surely, there are not permanent friends or enemies in international politics, only permanent interests.
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