Greenhouse-gas emissions are set to rise fast in 2021

The story: In 2020, as countries locked down amid spiralling Covid-19 infections and deaths, some environmentalists saw a silver lining to the pandemi

Greenhouse-gas emissions are set to rise fast in 2021

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• The story: In 2020, as countries locked down amid spiralling Covid-19 infections and deaths, some environmentalists saw a silver lining to the pandemic: a decline in the world’s use of fossil fuels, and hence, greenhouse-gas emissions. Indeed, global energy-related carbon emissions fell by 5.8% in 2020, or nearly 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, due to reduced demand for oil, coal and gas. But since cumulative emissions in the atmosphere would rise and not fall even with an annual reduction in net emissions, the only ray of hope is eventually it may be the beginning of the end of fossil fuels.
• IEA report on fossil fuels: In the latest Global Energy Review, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions will rise by 1.5 gigatonnes to 33 gigatonnes in 2021, an increase of almost 5%. In absolute terms this would be the largest increase since 2010 when, after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, governments poured cash into carbon-intensive projects in an effort to pull their economies out of recession.
• Coal it is: Most of the increase in emissions predicted for 2021 will be driven by a dramatic rebound in the burning of coal, particularly in China. The IEA thinks global demand for coal will approach the peak of 2014. It also expects global demand for natural gas to exceed the level of 2019. Demand for both fuels will be pushed up by higher consumption once vaccination roll-outs cause societies to open back up. Oil will also rebound, though at a slower rate because of the sluggish recovery of aviation. All told, emissions will be slightly lower in 2021 than before the pandemic, but are likely to quickly exceed 2019 levels once lingering coronavirus restrictions—such as limits on international travel—are lifted.
• RE rising: The IEA expects renewable-energy generation to rise, too. In 2021 renewable sources will account for 30% of global electricity, its largest ever share. Wind and solar power is on track for its largest rise in history. But even these achievements will be eclipsed by the increased use of fossil fuels to meet global energy demand, which is expected to grow by 4.6%.
• Summary: If such predictions are borne out, 2020 will have been little more than a temporary dip in the world’s emissions, not a turning-point. Not enough is being done to protect the environment as the world emerges from the pandemic. The economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for the planet's climate. Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022.

 

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