Analysis of Uttar Pradesh's politics - Elections 2022

Analysing the political equations in Uttar Pradesh is a tough task, due to the multiple factors at work always.

Analysis of Uttar Pradesh's politics - Elections 2022

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• Wrong analyses: While analysing UP elections, most got it wrong in 2007, 2012 and 2017, and predicted close fights. Each time, a single party swept the polls!
• Why wrong always: Analysts have tended to focus on caste arithmetic, old categories used since 1990s, etc. It is now clear that UP has moved on from a rigid identity politics of pure caste and religion to identity politics plus governance. The floating population clearly votes keeping in mind its own interest.
• Big change in UP: Voters have thrown out every incumbent government since 1989 in UP, impatient with poor governance.

1. This time, the BJP may buck the trend, as its 40% vote share in 2017 is a big cushion, and the average constituency-level winning margin was 15%; so in 2022, it can win despite losing many votes
2. The SP and BSP earned majority with 30% and 29% of votes

• BJP's 2017 mandate: Two ways to look at it -

1. It was a historic restructuring of the caste-community voting pattern of UP due to BJP's ideological victory
2. It was due to a large floating voter population unhappy with the incumbent (if this was true, then 2017 was not a permanent trend, and 2022 may see a change)
3. The common element in all 3 majority winning elections was the social engineering messages (Bahujan politics, Lohiaite socialism or Hindu unity) that the electorate rallied behind solidly
4. In 2017, public rallied behind Modi's call, upset with crime, corruption, Yadav favouritism, more Muslims in power elite and so on
5. But the BJP's rise in UP from 1991-98 and its fall from 1998-2017 means nothing is permanent in UP

• Contextual or absolute: So the key question is: was the 2017 victory contextual or absolute? If it was contextual, then BJP can be beaten in 2022 if (i) strong anti-incumbency is being felt, and (ii) one clear alternative emerges turning it from being a multi-polar to bi-polar contest
• Anti-incumbency: Why was Mr. Adityanath chosen as CM in 2017, when he was a lightweight outside Gorakhpur? Two logics used by Modi-Shah -

1. Only hardline Hindutva can ever contain all the caste contradictions between the upper castes, upwardly mobile castes (Jats, Gujjars) and OBCs (Kurmis, Lodhis), all assembled during the Ram Jamnabhoomi movement  [as seen earlier, 1999 expulsion of Kalyan Singh broke that Hindutva coalition due to caste contradictions]
2. Only an authoritative leader could maintain both Hindu unity and build a governance constituency (In 1990s and 2000s BJP tried three CMs and finally failed before SP and BSP)
3. But these two logics have not worked well for the BJP at all

• Why not: Adityanath was an outsider in Lucknow, and immediately started building his Thakur base, filling institutions with own caste men (Zilla parishads, SHOs, civil servants). That led to "thakurvaad" allegations. Then came the "tough on crime image", which has worked well, but there's no social development angle so far at all. An finally, the Covid crisis undid most of his governance credentials. The dead bodies floating in rivers will be glue for various anxieties on unemployment, poor growth and farmer distress to come together.
• Where is the alternative: The only party to challenge the BJP will be the SP. The BSP's decline from 2012 was steady, and its political activism roots are now dead. Congress is not reviving, as the Panchayat elections proved clearly. The SP may well be able to make it a bipolar contest. The local elites and disgruntled electorates may get consolidated quickly. But SP never crossed 30% vote share, so it's not easy.
• The formula: SP needs to move beyond the regular caste consolidation and minority insecurity issues, and appeal to the floating voters with the message of development - that's what Akhilesh Yadav did in 2012 with "employment, education and electricity".
• Summary: If the BJP loses UP in 2022, it would mean it over-read its social engineering or ideological triumph vastly. 

 

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