US President Biden and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani

As Afghanistan slides into an uncertain future with the withdrawal of US troops, the Presidents meet.

US President Biden and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani

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• The first visit: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House for the first, and perhaps the last, face-to-face interaction ahead of the remaining U.S. and NATO forces’ withdrawal from the war-torn country by Sept. 11, 2021. For Ghani, it's imperative to stop the Taliban’s advance.
• Failed states: Interestingly, Ghani wrote a book on how to fix failed states, but is himself a test case for a potentially failed state. U.S. intelligence assessment is now indicating that the Afghan government may collapse as soon as six months after U.S. forces leave.

1. President Ghani is on a last-ditch mission to (i) stave off gains by Taliban militants, (ii) secure continued U.S. financial support after the withdrawal of NATO troops from the country, and, (iii) seek tangible assurances from Biden that the United States will not allow his government to fall.
2. More than 80 Afghan districts have fallen to the Taliban since April, when Biden announced his plan to withdraw all U.S. troops. Many Afghan forces are fighting valiantly, but countless others are surrendering to the Taliban or simply abandoning their positions, leaving behind weapons for the Taliban to stockpile.

• Ghani's failures: Ghani has tried to micromanage the war and undermine commanders, with disastrous results. Amid military setbacks, he revamped leadership in the security sector, changing interior ministers twice and replacing the minister of defense, army chief of staff, and half a dozen core commanders. Hamdullah Mohib is the national security advisor with no military experience of his own. Coalition military officials worry he is out of his depth and is weakening the resolve of the military. The Taliban have taken advantage of the vacuum. They have avoided provincial capitals, strategically advancing on surrounding districts where they either have a decisive advantage or can easily pick off targets.
• Dangerous future: The abandoned arsenal the Taliban are acquiring will make them formidable when they do move onto bigger cities like Kabul, when foreign forces are fully withdrawn. The Taliban don’t even bother to hold the districts and simply move on after the army surrenders. That makes it harder for the army to target them.
• Others rising up: As the official military continues to suffer losses, militia leaders and warlords in Afghanistan’s north, including several prominent mujahideen commanders who fought the Taliban before 9/11, are once again taking up arms and calling on supporters to mobilize against the Taliban.

1. Ghani earlier resisted pressure to devolve responsibility for security and governance to the district level.
2. Now that local forces are seemingly the only thing preventing the Taliban from taking over, they will demand more power in their regions.
3. After Kabul spent years building up a professional army, at great expense to the United States, the proliferation of freelance fighters risks a return of old rivalries and warlordism that could plunge Afghanistan back into civil war.

• Alternative: Ever since the United States announced its intention this spring to leave, a group of prominent Afghans have been working to assemble a national leadership council, supporting a modern vision for the country to present a united front against the Taliban. Ghani's personal ambitions may come in the way. The Taliban have dismissed Ghani’s visit to Washington as “useless” and of no benefit to Afghanistan.
• Today's situation: Afghanistan is a far different place than it was when the Taliban ruled in the 1990s. The group promised to continue fighting to establish an Islamic government, where the sexes will be strictly segregated, women will be forced to wear hijabs, and freedom of speech and expression are all but gone. The boring realities of governing may be an incentive for the Taliban to work with other Afghans who can do the job they can’t.
• 8. Summary: The Taliban may face a tough time if local uprisings spread rapidly. Finally, no one may prevail!

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