Iran-U.S. nuclear talks

The story: Both US and Iran are keen on reigniting the now-defunct nuclear deal - the JCPOA - but new trouble has erupted.

Iran-U.S. nuclear talks

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• The story: Both US and Iran are keen on reigniting the now-defunct nuclear deal - the JCPOA - but new trouble has erupted.
• Details: Deepening mistrust is hurting both sides, worsened by the June 2021 election of Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-liner with a murderous history who is to replace moderate Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s president in August. Raisi has said he wants to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but he and the Iranian regime are now making tough demands. They insist on a guarantee that no future U.S. administration will withdraw from the deal as Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, did.

1. Another reason for new skepticism is things have changed so much on the ground for both sides. Biden is unwilling to roll back all the sanctions imposed by Trump. And Tehran is so far advanced in its technical development, especially its new, much faster IR-9 centrifuge—which it is now testing—that its “breakout” timeline for a bomb has shrunk considerably, possibly already rendering the JCPOA moot.
2. Both sides now see that restoring the status quo ante is not entirely possible. Iran is not likely to get the same amount of sanctions relief as it had in 2015 and 2016, and the U.S. is not likely to be able to roll back all of Iran’s nuclear enhancements since Trump left the deal in 2018.

• Supreme Leader's desire: The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is believed to want a deal signed before Rouhani leaves office, so any public backlash from a compromise deal hurts the former president and not Raisi, Khamenei’s likely anointed heir as supreme leader. Otherwise the pact may never be revived. Advanced centrifuges allow Iran to enrich more uranium to greater purity in less time.
• Regional influence: Iran has a strong missile programme and regional network of violent proxies, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and anti-U.S. militias in Iraq. Raisi insists Iran’s ballistic missiles and regional activities are “not negotiable.” The extended inspection period negotiated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), under which Iran will maintain U.N. nuclear inspection data, expired on June 24, and it is not clear IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi will be able to negotiate another one. That could also doom the JCPOA.
• Economic issues: Iran wants the release of tens of billions of dollars  of frozen assets. Trump had imposed hundreds of additional sanctions—including ruinous levies on the Central Bank of Iran, the National Iranian Oil Company, and the National Iranian Tanker Company—allegedly for financing state-sponsored terrorism.
• Israel's new boss: Another new wild card is the installation of a new hard-line administration in Israel, Iran’s No. 1 enemy. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett—who, like his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, abhors the 2015 deal—sent his military chief of staff, Aviv Kochavi, to Washington to warn the United States and European powers to “wake up” to the dangers of any new compromise since Raisi’s election.
• Summary: For both sides, a return to some form of the 2015 deal is far more desirable than a continued stalemate. Iran’s economy cannot continue to endure U.S. sanctions without more political turmoil, and Washington knows any kind of pact is more a restraint on Tehran than nothing at all.

 

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