India Covid vaccination programe - full vaccination of adults to take 7 months if pace doubled

There are 86.5 crore adults who need vaccination to meet the December 2021 target; this means 173 crore vaccine doses, for a two-dose plan.

India Covid vaccination programe - full vaccination of adults to take 7 months if pace doubled

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• The story: The Covid-19 vaccination programme of India suffered many changes as the pandemic evolved. By June, it was clear that fully vaccinating India’s entire adult population by December was tough, and even by doubling the daily pace, the vaccination exercise can be completed only by the end of January 2022. At the current rate, it would take around 15 more months, or September 2022.
• Data: There are 86.5 crore adults who need vaccination to meet the December 2021 target; according to demographic data from the Department of Economic Affairs May 2021 Monthly Economic Review. This means 173 crore vaccine doses, assuming a two-dose vaccination. About 5 crore people have already received two doses of the vaccine. Another 16-17 crore have received one dose.

1. The government will need to administer another 163 crore vaccine doses. The number of days this takes would depend on the pace of vaccination
2. With the supply situation improving, the pace of vaccination has almost doubled since April with more than 30 lakh doses being done a day
3. But at this rate, it would be 453 more days to administer the remaining doses
4. It would take 227 days at twice the current pace to vaccinate everyone.

• Finance Ministry assumptions: The finance ministry has said assuming herd immunity at 80 per cent, the target population to be vaccinated is 700 million who should be vaccinated by September 2021. The government estimated that about 9.3 million vaccinations are required per day to achieve herd immunity. That means almost tripling the current weekly average per day vaccinations. The peak daily vaccination rate attained to date is about 4 million.

1. Bharat Biotech said the company was on track to touch an annual capacity of one billion doses (100 crore) by December through the ramping up happening in Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Ankleshwar. This would mean a capacity of 83-85 million doses of Covaxin a month up from current estimated 35 million a month.
2. Add to this SII’s capacity to make Novavax vaccine. The target is to make 50 million doses of Covovax per month. However, the company has not touched the production target yet after the USFDA approval, and one can expect Covovax in the market by October. Novavax has said it expected to file for approvals from the USFDA in the third quarter of calendar 2021.

• Sputnik: The Centre expects 156 million doses of Sputnik V by the year-end, apart from 100 million doses of Bharat Biotech’s nasal vaccine, and 60 million doses of the Gennova mRNA vaccine, both of which are being developed. The Health Ministry has placed orders for 300 million doses of Biological E vaccine, which is in phase 3 clinical trials now. It is placing bets on 750 million doses of Covishield and 550 million doses from Bharat Biotech.
• Summary: Overall, the govt. sees about 1.5 billion doses of vaccine supplies in the second half of the year. 

 

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